Coronavirus. Not to be confused with Norcovirus.

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This was too good to pass up

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BonsaiNut said:
Interestingly, this came up in this morning's Google news feed:

Vitamin D appears to play role in COVID-19 mortality rates

Better yet, the research came from Northwestern University, my alma mater!
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Not to argue with the data, but how about areas with high "D" levels being sunnier providing less coronas in their environment? That's the only reason I can reconcile the differences in the levels of COVID in Orange County and Nassau County, NY (where a friend resides). Nassau is about half the size and area of OC with about half the population (so similar population densities), but has 60X the death rate and 25X the incidence per capita of OC. I could provide numbers, if anyone is interested.
 
fos'l said:
Not to argue with the data, but how about areas with high "D" levels being sunnier providing less coronas in their environment? That's the only reason I can reconcile the differences in the levels of COVID in Orange County and Nassau County, NY (where a friend resides). Nassau is about half the size and area of OC with about half the population (so similar population densities), but has 60X the death rate and 25X the incidence per capita of OC. I could provide numbers, if anyone is interested.
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I have no real idea, but just guessing, I would assume that many of those 25x incidence are due to public transportation, and people working in an urban environment in which you are just naturally in close proximity to a lot of people. All it takes is one active case on the subway, and those people in turn go into their office in Manhattan, and then go out to lunch with friends in a crowded NYC deli, and then commute on the subway home to their family... with two kids who will go to a crowded NYC school the following day.

I think people now agree that the virus was spreading pretty aggressively in February and early March prior to any state or city-wide social distancing implementation. And whether or not you agree with the government's response, I don't think people knew how aggressively this virus was going to spread... until they already had it. I am just glad we were able to get our son out of Boston...

NY state is now saying they have a confirmed case rate of 2.0% of their entire population. Last data I saw, general NYC population was testing at around 25%... a couple of weeks ago.

It's kinda like that meat-packing plant in Iowa we were talking about with the 60% incidence. They likely didn't catch the virus on the production line, since they were wearing masks, gloves and gowns as part of their job. It more likely spread when they were taking their coffee breaks or lunch hours in the company cafeteria, packed in together at long lunch tables like when you are in school.
 
From what I have seen, sunnier regions have not necessarily experienced a lower infection rate. Palm Springs got whacked pretty good by this thing. But then again, that area is composed of an older average age.
 
BonsaiNut said:
I have no real idea, but just guessing, I would assume that many of those 25x incidence are due to public transportation, and people working in an urban environment in which you are just naturally in close proximity to a lot of people. All it takes is one active case on the subway, and those people in turn go into their office in Manhattan, and then go out to lunch with friends in a crowded NYC deli, and then commute on the subway home to their family... with two kids who will go to a crowded NYC school the following day.

I think people now agree that the virus was spreading pretty aggressively in February and early March prior to any state or city-wide social distancing implementation. And whether or not you agree with the government's response, I don't think people knew how aggressively this virus was going to spread... until they already had it. I am just glad we were able to get our son out of Boston...

NY state is now saying they have a confirmed case rate of 2.0% of their entire population. Last data I saw, general NYC population was testing at around 25%... a couple of weeks ago.

It's kinda like that meat-packing plant in Iowa we were talking about with the 60% incidence. They likely didn't catch the virus on the production line, since they were wearing masks, gloves and gowns as part of their job. It more likely spread when they were taking their coffee breaks or lunch hours in the company cafeteria, packed in together at long lunch tables like when you are in school.
Click to expand...

I agree with the extreme response that was taken (but, JMO), and think it's possible my "feelings" (not even as good as a theory) are bunk, but just a thought. Numbers are pretty low in FL too (but I haven't "analyzed" them).
 
Cause for some optimism (total US new confirmed cases)...

Remember, this graph is based on testing rates and confirmed cases, not based on actual total cases. However if you consider it a proxy for the worst cases that show up for emergency medical care, the trend is heading in the right direction. Due to the lag between infection and symptoms onset (typically 5-7 days) project this graph forward about 5 days to guestimate where we truly are as of today.

Note also the 7 day testing cycle... four days up, three days down... Really apparent when you look at these numbers at a national level.

optimistic.jpg


The situation in New York State has dramatically improved:

new-york.jpg
 
BonsaiNut said:
Cause for some optimism (total US new confirmed cases)...

Remember, this graph is based on testing rates and confirmed cases, not based on actual total cases. However if you consider it a proxy for the worst cases that show up for emergency medical care, the trend is heading in the right direction. Due to the lag between infection and symptoms onset (typically 5-7 days) project this graph forward about 5 days to guestimate where we truly are as of today.

Note also the 7 day testing cycle... four days up, three days down... Really apparent when you look at these numbers at a national level.

View attachment 64971

The situation in New York State has dramatically improved:

View attachment 64972
Click to expand...
We knew that we would reach this goal but I have heard reports of new case spikes in countries where restrictions have been eased or lifted. We too will experience this.
 
sir crashalot said:
That is not unexpected.
Saw that 75 people who went to a reopen Wisconsin protest tested positive.
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False news. Of the approximately 5,200 people in Wisconsin who have tested positive for Covid-19 since April 24, 72 people responded positively to a health questionnaire question that they had been to a "large gathering". It is a standard question on the Wisconsin questionnaire - and they ask the same question of everyone who tests positive for Covid-19.

Your definition of "large gathering" is as good (or as vague) as anyone's. Family reunion? Graduation party? Church service? Covid-19 demonstration? Who knows.

I need to get a job at Snopes.
 
BonsaiNut said:
False news. Of the approximately 5,200 people in Wisconsin who have tested positive for Covid-19 since April 24, 72 people responded positively to a health questionnaire question that they had been to a "large gathering". It is a standard question on the Wisconsin questionnaire - and they ask the same question of everyone who tests positive for Covid-19.

Your definition of "large gathering" is as good (or as vague) as anyone's. Family reunion? Graduation party? Church service? Covid-19 demonstration? Who knows.

I need to get a job at Snopes.
Click to expand...
Well it was on Facebook, I shoulda known better :)
 
scan said:
Is there a reference for that report??
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I didn't find a "report", just some news articles, like this one:

https://www.channel3000.com/72-got-covid-19-after-being-at-large-event/

Note how even the headline is incorrect. The headline says "large event" when the people were asked literally if they had been to a "large gathering". And then they post a photo of the Madison protest/rally... which has absolutely nothing to do with the facts of the report. FWIW in the same article they talk about 67 people who responded positively that they had been to the polls for the April 7 election... but they can't prove that being at the polls, exclusively, was the cause of their contagion.

I'm not a big fan of most journalists, since I find the temptation is too great to bend the truth in order to generate readership. I am not pro/con the Madison rally - but this is clearly a smear job to try to suggest that people came down with Covid-19 at the rally. Note how there is no author for this piece... just a general "Associated Press" attribution.
 
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I suppose this is as good a reason as any to avoid FedEx when possible...but what I ordered was sent by the company I ordered it from. In my experience UPS grinds FedEx into the shitpile. Originally was supposed to be here Sunday. Then between 1245 and 1710 today. Now "Pending." Again. This is almost funny.

You: Package late again. Where is it

FedEx: I regret that your package was not delivered on time.
Has the package already been delivered
  • No
FedEx: Please choose the expected delivery date of your package:
FedEx: Your commitment time depends on the FedEx service type used to ship your package. To find out the service type for your package, go to FedEx® Tracking to track your package. The service type will display in the Shipment Facts section at the bottom of the page.
  • FedEx Express - Mon.- Fri. between 8 a.m. and 8 p.m. Saturday between noon and 4:30 p.m.(special services).
  • FedEx Home Delivery® - Mon.- Sat. between 9 a.m. and 8 p.m.
  • FedEx Ground - Mon. - Fri. by the end of business day.
  • FedEx SmartPost® packages will be delivered by the United States Postal Service (Mon.-Sat.).
If you have not received your package by the commitments outlined above, please contact a FedEx customer service representative.

You: That's no help. where's my package

FedEx: In order for me to assist you with tracking your shipment, I will need your tracking number or door tag number.
If you do not have this number, type "I don't have it".
Please enter your tracking number
.
You: 450XXXXXXXX

FedEx: Our records indicate this shipment was most recently placed on a FedEx vehicle May 12, 2020 at 3:54 AM, and is scheduled to be delivered by the commitment time.

This is the most up-to-date information our representatives have at this time.

Need more information? Watch this helpful video.
Get status updates for this shipment.

You: Pending again. Not delivered on time. Again.

FedEx: I regret that your package was not delivered on time.
Has the package already been delivered:
FedEx: Please choose the expected delivery date of your package:
  • Today
  • FedEx: Your commitment time depends on the FedEx service type used to ship your package. To find out the service type for your package, go to FedEx® Tracking to track your package. The service type will display in the Shipment Facts section at the bottom of the page.
  • FedEx Express - Mon.- Fri. between 8 a.m. and 8 p.m. Saturday between noon and 4:30 p.m.(special services).
  • FedEx Home Delivery® - Mon.- Sat. between 9 a.m. and 8 p.m.
  • FedEx Ground - Mon. - Fri. by the end of business day.
  • FedEx SmartPost® packages will be delivered by the United States Postal Service (Mon.-Sat.).
If you have not received your package by the commitments outlined above, please contact a FedEx customer service representative.

You: I did that. You suck.

FedEx: Is there something regarding FedEx services that I can help you with?

You: Apparently not.

FedEx: I need more information. Would you please repeat your question in a different way?
 
Runs with Scissors said:
I suppose this is as good a reason as any to avoid FedEx when possible...but what I ordered was sent by the company I ordered it from. In my experience UPS grinds FedEx into the shitpile. Originally was supposed to be here Sunday. Then between 1245 and 1710 today. Now "Pending." Again. This is almost funny.

You: Package late again. Where is it

FedEx: I regret that your package was not delivered on time.
Has the package already been delivered
  • No
FedEx: Please choose the expected delivery date of your package:
FedEx: Your commitment time depends on the FedEx service type used to ship your package. To find out the service type for your package, go to FedEx® Tracking to track your package. The service type will display in the Shipment Facts section at the bottom of the page.
  • FedEx Express - Mon.- Fri. between 8 a.m. and 8 p.m. Saturday between noon and 4:30 p.m.(special services).
  • FedEx Home Delivery® - Mon.- Sat. between 9 a.m. and 8 p.m.
  • FedEx Ground - Mon. - Fri. by the end of business day.
  • FedEx SmartPost® packages will be delivered by the United States Postal Service (Mon.-Sat.).
If you have not received your package by the commitments outlined above, please contact a FedEx customer service representative.

You: That's no help. where's my package

FedEx: In order for me to assist you with tracking your shipment, I will need your tracking number or door tag number.
If you do not have this number, type "I don't have it".
Please enter your tracking number
.
You: 450XXXXXXXX

FedEx: Our records indicate this shipment was most recently placed on a FedEx vehicle May 12, 2020 at 3:54 AM, and is scheduled to be delivered by the commitment time.

This is the most up-to-date information our representatives have at this time.

Need more information? Watch this helpful video.
Get status updates for this shipment.

You: Pending again. Not delivered on time. Again.

FedEx: I regret that your package was not delivered on time.
Has the package already been delivered:
FedEx: Please choose the expected delivery date of your package:
  • Today
  • FedEx: Your commitment time depends on the FedEx service type used to ship your package. To find out the service type for your package, go to FedEx® Tracking to track your package. The service type will display in the Shipment Facts section at the bottom of the page.
  • FedEx Express - Mon.- Fri. between 8 a.m. and 8 p.m. Saturday between noon and 4:30 p.m.(special services).
  • FedEx Home Delivery® - Mon.- Sat. between 9 a.m. and 8 p.m.
  • FedEx Ground - Mon. - Fri. by the end of business day.
  • FedEx SmartPost® packages will be delivered by the United States Postal Service (Mon.-Sat.).
If you have not received your package by the commitments outlined above, please contact a FedEx customer service representative.

You: I did that. You suck.

FedEx: Is there something regarding FedEx services that I can help you with?

You: Apparently not.

FedEx: I need more information. Would you please repeat your question in a different way?
Click to expand...
I had a similar experience recently with UPS (Sorry Ed).
 
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