Coronavirus. Not to be confused with Norcovirus.

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HBkites said:
According to this graph our collective behavior moving forward will have a big affect on the projected number of cases.
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A statistical model is only as good as the quality of its variables. Unfortunately, though I read their method detail, they did not share their math. I am particularly interested in their "social distancing" variable, since it is not social distancing at all, but rather "cell phone travel patterns". Always be careful when a "statistician" starts renaming their variables to describe them as something other than what they are.

There are huge gaps in their logic. There is no mention of true underlying case rates (supposedly 25%+ in New York City and 20%+ in LA), or the impact of of herd immunity. There is no mention of natural seasonality - and the natural reduction in social interactions in the summer as students are out of school. No mention of the structural changes to the economy, and the 20% of people who are now unemployed and won't be returning to work any time soon. There is no behavioral component included - and the assumption is that anyone returning to any non-essential business is going to behave exactly as they did PRIOR to the pandemic, and there will be no health-related behavioral changes (no masks, no sterilizing shopping carts, no increased washing of hands, no gloves at gas stations or increased distancing at restaurants, etc). Basically they are expecting us to believe that the nanosecond social distancing protocols are repealed, everyone is going to instantly return to "business as usual".

I don't buy it.

(1) Correlation does not equal causality. Just because they can get numbers to fit history, does not automatically mean they can use those same numbers to project history forward.
(2) The only thing worse than no math is bad math. This is bad math.
(3) Tell me the result you want to see, and I can create a statistical model to show that result. It doesn't mean that the model is correct... just that the math works.

snoho.jpg

Good thing you don't live in Snohomish County, WA. If they loosen up social distancing rules by even 50%, the entire population is going to die by October (sarcasm).
 
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BonsaiNut said:
Absolutely. That is exactly my point. If someone knowingly gives someone else a disease. If you know you have AIDS, and then have unprotected sex, and your partner comes down with AIDS, you can be charged with a felony.

However is it fair for the government to imprison all homosexuals on the fear that they might have AIDS, and might therefore pass it on to someone else? I was responding to @tick 's comment suggesting that my freedoms can be curtailed any time the government thinks I might be sick... which, quite frankly, is ALL the time - unless I can somehow prove that I'm not sick.
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That is a condition of being an American. You and I both know that no system is perfect but I bet that there is no other country you'd rather live in. You cannot keep all of the people happy all of the time.
 

BonsaiNut said:
Absolutely. That is exactly my point. If someone knowingly gives someone else a disease. If you know you have AIDS, and then have unprotected sex, and your partner comes down with AIDS, you can be charged with a felony.

However is it fair for the government to imprison all homosexuals on the fear that they might have AIDS, and might therefore pass it on to someone else? I was responding to @tick 's comment suggesting that my freedoms can be curtailed any time the government thinks I might be sick... which, quite frankly, is ALL the time - unless I can somehow prove that I'm not sick.
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https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1987-05-08-mn-2810-story.html?_amp=true
 
With the reopening, it is thought that the spike in new cases and related deaths will be ten fold. I guess the medical field thinks it
s too early.
 
SnakeCharmer said:
With the reopening, it is thought that the spike in new cases and related deaths will be ten fold. I guess the medical field thinks it
s too early.
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Depends where you are and how open things really are. California is just letting small shops open for curbside like the big shops already do. It’s maybe even a good thing to spread shoppers out.

States that rely on property tax more than sales or income tax are going to be able to stay closed longer.

Sounds like Georgia wants to be the Petri dish though.
 
tick said:
It’s about the state shutting down businesses to control the spread of aids.
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I'd wager a bet a large motive behind that was borderline prostitution and politics and 'NIMBY' people. HIV/AIDS was the ammo they used.
 
Another site questioning the cost of our Covid-19 response:

Millions predicted to develop tuberculosis as a result of Covid-19 lockdown

"we look in amazement on a disease that … is 120 days old and it has 100 vaccine candidates in the pipeline. So I think this world, sorry for my French, is really F@cked up. The fear we have in the community is that researchers are heading towards just developing a vaccine for Covid. That’s on the agenda of everyone now and very few remain focused on the others [diseases]"
 
A couple of Tyson plants reporting 60% or so infection rate. Exhibits what was anticipated with no restraints. Everyone is aware of the collateral problems the actions caused. Many aren't focusing on what might have occurred. Maybe we'll find out as restrictions are lifted. Hope not.
 
fos'l said:
Iowa has a reported infection rate of 17% of those tested. Quite a stretch, even for you.
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Not as much of a stretch as your 60% number, LOL. Would you be kind enough to provide the source? Here's the only thing that I could find:

COVID-19 Among Workers in Meat and Poultry Processing Facilities ― 19 States, April 2020 (data through May 1, 2020)
COVID-19 cases among U.S. workers in 115 meat and poultry processing facilities were reported by 19 states. Among approximately 130,000 workers at these facilities, 4,913 cases and 20 deaths occurred.

Not sure why people continue to take pot-shots at me for stating facts, but let me help you with some basic math. 4,913 divided by 130,000 is 3.8%. Quite a stretch from 60%. But maybe I missed something...
 
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BonsaiNut said:
Not as much of a stretch as your 60% number, LOL. Would you be kind enough to provide the source? Here's the only thing that I could find:

COVID-19 Among Workers in Meat and Poultry Processing Facilities ― 19 States, April 2020 (data through May 1, 2020)
COVID-19 cases among U.S. workers in 115 meat and poultry processing facilities were reported by 19 states. Among approximately 130,000 workers at these facilities, 4,913 cases and 20 deaths occurred.

Not sure why people continue to take pot-shots at me for stating facts, but let me help you with some basic math. 4,913 divided by 130,000 is 3.8%. Quite a stretch from 60%. But maybe I missed something...
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1) "Facts" are impossible this early in the game. They should be referred to as nothing more than "preliminary estimates". :cautious:
2) If you refer to the "facts" supplied by any number of "reliable sources" and you get different figures. :facepalm:
3) Please change the location below your avatar. It still says "Laguna Hills". :D
 
BonsaiNut said:
Not as much of a stretch as your 60% number, LOL. Would you be kind enough to provide the source? Here's the only thing that I could find:

COVID-19 Among Workers in Meat and Poultry Processing Facilities ― 19 States, April 2020 (data through May 1, 2020)
COVID-19 cases among U.S. workers in 115 meat and poultry processing facilities were reported by 19 states. Among approximately 130,000 workers at these facilities, 4,913 cases and 20 deaths occurred.

Not sure why people continue to take pot-shots at me for stating facts, but let me help you with some basic math. 4,913 divided by 130,000 is 3.8%. Quite a stretch from 60%. But maybe I missed something...
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Put "Tyson plant in Iowa with 60% positive COVID" in your browser and you'll discover almost 700 employees in a Perry, Iowa plant tested positive. How about Fox Business, The New York Daily News, The Kansas City Star among many others for proof? Think the latest number is 58%, but I said 60% or so.
 
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Just for interest: Iowa
Total tested: 57,161
Total Positive: 9,703
Total Negative: 47458
Positive: 16.97%
 
SnakeCharmer said:
Please change the location below your avatar. It still says "Laguna Hills". :D
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It's where my bikes are :) They are sheltering in place.

fos'l said:
Put "Tyson plant in Iowa with 60% positive COVID" in your browser and you'll discover almost 700 employees in a Perry, Iowa plant tested positive. How about Fox Business, The New York Daily News, The Kansas City Star among many others for proof? Think the latest number is 58%, but I said 60% or so.
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Gotcha. I tried searching this morning stuff like "meat plant covid rates" and "60% covid meat plant" and couldn't find anything. Like I said "maybe I missed something". Sounds like the worst case scenario.
 
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