The Weather Thread
- Thread starter Cornholio
- Start date
Y-not
iMTB Rockstah
Looks like next Monday the 12th is the next ride day for me. I'm giving it a few days to try and dry out. The nights are going to be in the mid to upper 30's and the days in the low 50's, so not much in the way of drying out the trails.
Maybe I will start walking to the lake.
Maybe I will start walking to the lake.
herzalot
iMTB Hooligan
This weather prediction for Mt. High makes no sense to me...
First - it's currently 30° and snowing at Mt. High, yet they are calling for rain tonight. Is it suddenly going to get warmer?
At the same time they are saying wind chill factor to 20° - I have never known it to rain at 20°. Calling for an excess of 4" of rain tonight.
Then they are talking about rain Monday morning and the rain could be heavy at times, but saying there could be over a foot of snow.
I'm so confused. I am hoping that the wind chill keep everything below freezing above 5000' for the duration of this storm.
First - it's currently 30° and snowing at Mt. High, yet they are calling for rain tonight. Is it suddenly going to get warmer?
At the same time they are saying wind chill factor to 20° - I have never known it to rain at 20°. Calling for an excess of 4" of rain tonight.
Then they are talking about rain Monday morning and the rain could be heavy at times, but saying there could be over a foot of snow.
I'm so confused. I am hoping that the wind chill keep everything below freezing above 5000' for the duration of this storm.
Runs with Scissors
iMTB Hooligan
Wind chill is a measure of an effect on human beings (and other living things), but it has no effect on whether it will snow or rain.
Last I read is that the current conditions are cold, but as the Pineapple Express moves in it's carrying more subtropical effects, so the temp goes up. A tad. So snow becomes rain. Later, on the back side of the storm, the temp drops again and snow levels fall.
DangerDirtyD
iMTB Hooligan
I imagine a weather cast on channel 6. I can’t help it. Here we go!
herzalot
iMTB Hooligan
Thanks Dr. Weather! But I would posit that if the wind can chill a human, it can chill precipitation. That might be why they can blow snow in temps up to 35°. I would also posit that I could be terribly mistaken.
Just praying that the 4" + of rain doesn't strip the mountain of its snow before the cool side of the storm drops more snow.
Old&InTheWay
Well-Known Member
Maybe this will help: https://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/scal?hr=6&hr=6&hr=6&hr=6
herzalot
iMTB Hooligan
I like your map. It doesn't mention rain for Mt. High!
Although I am not sure why I care. I have deteriorated substantially in the past week and can barely walk more than 100 yards. Not sure skiing is in the cards for me the rest of this season...
Hip replacement on March 29. I hope that also takes care of the back and knee pain I have developed as a result. Or maybe the hip is really my back problem. WTF knows?Fun fact - the Neurosurgeon who did my back surgery in 2022 just had his license suspended for three years! Well respected Newport Hoag Doc - been at it a long time.
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CBone
iMTB Rockstah
Yikes. Serious stuff
BonsaiNut
iMTB Rockstah
You are mostly correct! But we need to use correct terms. "Wind chill" is for weather people to describe what it "feels like" when cold wind blows against exposed skin. It does not, in and of itself, indicate whether you can make snow - even if the wind chill is 10F.
For snow-making there is a term "Wet-Bulb Temperature" which is the temp that a wet thermometer will drop to if air is blown on it, and it is influenced by temperature, humidity, and altitude (air pressure). It is, for all purposes, the temp that a water droplet will be exposed to during snow-making. With perfect conditions, snow-making can actually occur in temps as high as 40F if other conditions are right.
scan
iMTB Rockstah
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Runs with Scissors
iMTB Hooligan
. . I have deteriorated substantially in the past week and can barely walk more than 100 yards. Not sure skiing is in the cards for me the rest of this season...
All the props I can give, bro. You'll come out the other side way better off than you went in. @Mikie is abusing his knee replacements, so I fully (see what I did there?
) expect you to be testing the hip limits in about 6 months.Let's go climb STT in September. You can descend the Luge all by your lonesome. I don't like you THAT much.
Best wishes for the ulitmately awesome outcome.
Runs with Scissors
iMTB Hooligan
Back in the 1960s they called it "winter." Or just "rain."
CBone
iMTB Rockstah
Hey, don’t rain on the newscaster’s/weatherperson’s parade! Rain? Winter? Where is fear and hype in that?
-ROCKY-
Well-Known Member
-ROCKY-
Well-Known Member
I like your map. It doesn't mention rain for Mt. High!
Although I am not sure why I care. I have deteriorated substantially in the past week and can barely walk more than 100 yards. Not sure skiing is in the cards for me the rest of this season...
Fun fact - the Neurosurgeon who did my back surgery in 2022 just had his license suspended for three years! Well respected Newport Hoag Doc - been at it a long time.
Dang! Sorry to hear that herz. I'll send you some healing vibes! So is this the result of decades of shredding dirt, snow, and water? Or a crash?
herzalot
iMTB Hooligan
Dunno. Not a crash. Not an injury. And until about April last year, I felt amazing! I guess it's just age - I have played hard all of my life. Now them parts is wearing out!
2023 Calendar Year Stats (with a full-time job)
31 MtB rides
12 Ski/Snowboard Sessions
38 Surf Sessions
13 Hockey games
Oh and 3 rounds of golf!
Yay me?
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Sasquatch9billion
iMTB Rockstah
The guys at Topanga Creek Outpost (The bike shop,) have been posting some pretty wild videos on IG of the creek over flowing and some of the roads through the canyon being flooded. It looks harrowing. Chris and his team really work hard at keeping that shop dry and going.
BonsaiNut
iMTB Rockstah
Here in NC, the hyperbole won't stop. Reporting on California weather includes a blend of "El Nino", "Pineapple Express", and "Firehose" - often in the same sentence!
scan
iMTB Rockstah
Don't forget Bomb Cyclone!
Old&InTheWay
Well-Known Member
Looks like the snow level is dropping down to 4,500 feet in the Santa Ana Mtns. today and tomorrow. 
Rumpled
Well-Known Member
And, that's with some diversions to ponds and Prado Dam holding a lot back.
Cornholio
iMTB Rockstah
It still is and the Pineapple Express is an example of the atmospheric river that comes our way from Hawaii. I wouldn’t give the “news” much credit for original content, in today’s world they just copy and paste what they see gathering clicks on the internet.
“A well-known example of a strong atmospheric river is called the "Pineapple Express" because moisture builds up in the tropical Pacific around Hawaii and can wallop the U.S. and Canada's West Coasts with heavy rainfall and snow.”
“The Pineapple Express is always considered an atmospheric river event, but not all atmospheric rivers are a Pineapple Express.”
“The term was originally coined by researchers Reginald Newell and Yong Zhu of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in the early 1990s to reflect the narrowness of the moisture plumes involved.[3][5][11] Atmospheric rivers are typically several thousand kilometers long and only a few hundred kilometers wide, and a single one can carry a greater flux of water than Earth's largest river, the Amazon River.[4]There are typically 3–5 of these narrow plumes present within a hemisphere at any given time. These have been increasing[12] in intensity slightly over the past century.”