Coronavirus. Not to be confused with Norcovirus.
- Thread starter BonsaiNut
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HBkites
Well-Known Member
No access restrictions @ 5:30a this morning.
I rode from Quail parking lot up West Fork, Bommer, Laurel, Serrano, and Cattle crest. no sings of ant access restriction (there was a one way sign by the parking lot @ Bommer Canyon).
All those restriction are starting to affect me personally so now I'm paying attention.
I rode from Quail parking lot up West Fork, Bommer, Laurel, Serrano, and Cattle crest. no sings of ant access restriction (there was a one way sign by the parking lot @ Bommer Canyon).
All those restriction are starting to affect me personally so now I'm paying attention.
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BonsaiNut
iMTB Rockstah
That was an interesting read, thank you for posting it. Sadly it raises more questions than it answers (at least for me) because, sophisticated algorithms or not, one would hope that the CDC could do a better job than say "we think the number of people who died from the flu in one year was somewhere between 15,620 and 69,000 - depending on how you count them." It suggests that there is a pile of 53,000 bodies somewhere that the CDC thinks died from the flu... but without testing they can't be certain.
Note also his error when he states "In the last six flu seasons, the CDC's reported number of actual confirmed flu deaths — that is, counting flu deaths the way we are currently counting deaths from the coronavirus..." The last I heard, the count of coronavirus deaths includes presumed and probable deaths, and not all counted coronavirus deaths have been tested for coronavirus. From the John Hopkins tracking site:
Confirmed cases include presumptive positive cases and probable cases, in accordance with CDC guidelines as of April 14.
Dr. Faust appears to be out of step with his own organization, unless I am missing something?
kazlx
Well-Known Member
The reality of it is no matter how much they want to put a number on it, you effectively can't. Gunshot death? Car accident? "Relatively" easy to count and check the box as a cause of death or at least highly contributing cause. Then you take something like cancer, someone that has a compromised immune system. No doubt that getting a 'normal' flu isn't a good situation, but is that truly the cause of death? Between complicating issues, testing, pre-existing conditions and a million other things, it just seems that no matter what number gets thrown out there, it's highly unlikely to be all that accurate.
Side note: the natives are getting restless in HB.
Side note: the natives are getting restless in HB.
herzalot
iMTB Hooligan
I've said it again and I'll say it before...
Try the "but for" test common in tort law. But for Covid 19, would that person have died of that other condition now? If Covid 19 brought about, exacerbated or prevented normally-successful treatment of the condition, feel free to list Covid 19 as a cause of death.
UPSed
iMTB Hooligan
I was listening to a report from a doctor and he said basically if you end up in the hospital due to a car accident and you end up dying from that accident and they happen to test you for the virus then the death is recorded as Covid-19/accident.
kazlx
Well-Known Member
This has already been documented for numerous things. Especially in the beginning, even if you were ‘suspected’ of having it or tested positive you got listed as a confirmed death. I’m not arguing for or against either way and not saying that the virus doesn’t complicate problems, just pointing out numbers and statistics aren’t always 100% representative of what they are supposed to be showing....
herzalot
iMTB Hooligan
That's some of the nonsense that's being propagated by people who are looking to either manipulate statistics, or to claim that people are manipulating statistics. Sounds more like a meme than fact.
kazlx
Well-Known Member
Even if you take the statistics as gospel, there’s only been 50ish deaths in OC, for 3.5M people...
Mikie
Admin/iMTB Hooligan
LAKE ELSINORE, CA—Local man Brett Garfield was tragically killed in a skydiving accident yesterday. His death was quickly ruled death by coronavirus by medical experts. Garfield wasn't tested for coronavirus, but he exhibited many of the symptoms, such as suffering and dying, so he was immediately added to the rapidly growing coronavirus death statistics.
"Brett's 42-year-long life was tragically cut short yesterday, presumably by coronavirus, as he plummeted into the ground at a high rate of speed," said a Riverside County health official. "Darn you, coronavirus! How many more will you take from us? HOW MANY MORE!?!?"
As Garfield's body was scraped off the ground with a giant medical spatula, which is how they take care of these things, a coroner stood by and took notes on his clipboard. "Yep, looks like coronavirus to me. If he'd only socially distanced himself from the ground or worn a mask, he'd have been OK. Add him to the numbers, boys."
"I guess you could say he" -- at this point, he put his sunglasses on for dramatic effect -- "didn't understand the gravity of the situation."
The coroner spent the rest of the day ruling the death of a bus crash victim, a man hit by a freight train, and a guy crushed by a vending machine as coronavirus fatalities.
Runs with Scissors
iMTB Hooligan
There are lies, damn lies, and statistics. 
tick
Well-Known Member
Death certificates have the dr fill out the immediate cause of death, and then what underlying factors caused that immediate cause, and any other illnesses they might have had. So it’s possible that someone gets in a car accident and dies when the weakened lungs fail. Cause of death: lung failure. Due to: trauma and covid complications. Due to: auto accident.
nothing at all unusual in any of it. Anyone suspecting a coverup is looking in the wrong place.
Ockham’s razor. The best a man can get
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SnakeCharmer
iMTB Hooligan
And so someone who tested positive and survived a car accident might say to the Judge, "Your honor, the 'Rona made me do it! I plead Not Guilty."
herzalot
iMTB Hooligan
Exactly. The memes and sarcasm are running rampant on the interwebs, exaggerating and making light of the 60,000+ deaths. I guess if you make enough jokes you can convince yourself and others that only 12 people actually died of the virus and you can continue being angry about preventive measures.
Old&InTheWay
Well-Known Member
kazlx
Well-Known Member
Speaking towards OC only. The numbers don’t support the response. You’re basically asking the majority of the population to go broke, behind on bills, lose their jobs, etc, for minimal casualties. I know the standard response is ‘one life is too many’, but that’s just not the reality. The problem is that for some reason nobody seems to accept it. There was 100ish fatal car accidents in OC last year, so averaging 100/mo, but we still drive because it’s an acceptable loss. My point is politicians keep saying they support the science. But that’s just not the case. That’s 100 deaths a months from car accidents not to mention any other preventable death.
If they are trying to keep it locked down they need to justify it. And for OC they can’t. So it’s basically becoming the parental ‘because I said so’, which people are going to get annoyed and eventually pissed at. Slippery slope for the government to determine what’s safe for the people and lock everyone in their rooms until told otherwise.
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BonsaiNut
iMTB Rockstah
True. For example, I've been reading a lot of medical articles on seasonal flu. The majority of people who die "from the flu" actually die from pneumonia - a medical complication sometimes brought on by flu. Pneumonia can be brought on by the flu virus alone, or from co-infection from the flu virus and bacteria. There are many other serious complications that can be brought on by flu. Take someone with multiple pre-existing conditions, and add flu to the mix, and it is sometimes difficult to define the exact cause of death because there are so many contributing factors.
A couple of things I have certainly learned from this entire experience: (1) you're a fool if you don't get a flu vaccine shot each year. I have been a fool in the past... no longer. (2) cardio-vascular health is critical to improving your chances of survival from these respiratory viruses.
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herzalot
iMTB Hooligan
I'm asking no such thing. I'm asking for intelligent planning with the information we know and the materials/equipment/treatments/personnel/resources that we have. As with most things, I am neither in the "Oh my god, we are all going to die unless we stay in a closet" camp nor in the "don't tread on me, don't tell me what to do, it's all a hoax" camp.
And here's the deal about justification. As was predicted probably 50 pages ago in this thread, if the extreme social distancing/stay-at-home measures that were implemented in late March and April were successful - then everyone will say it wasn't necessary because there aren't that many cases and our hospitals are not overwhelmed. Logical fallacy.
Comparing a pandemic to other causes of death is also a false equivocation. Other causes of death are not contagious and have not spiked beyond the capacity to deal with them in highly localized areas.
So we've spent 50 pages restating positions, making these same errors in logic and trying to convince each other that's it's either a huge problem or it's not a huge problem. How about we spend the next 50 pages talking about what we SHOULD DO NOW! Throwing everything back to the way it was is not a solution - yet.
And finally, I agree whole heartedly - we should ALWAYS be suspicious and push back against extreme government limitations and potential abuses of power. If we ever lose our ability or desire to say "wait a minute - that seems excessive" we are in trouble. But our outrage shouldn't be based on what's most convenient for me.
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SnakeCharmer
iMTB Hooligan
"You cannot keep all of the people happy all of the time"
tick
Well-Known Member
OC Public Health has said that as soon as they get the capacity to do 4000 tests/day consistently, plus a few dozen more contact tracers, they’d be able to handle the current caseload with easier restrictions. But if we open OC, are people are going to come here and spread it around?
I’m as ready for a haircut as anyone.
I’m disappointed in all levels of government that I don’t remember an “epidemic drill” to prepare us for this. What we’ve been living has been in the playbook for 100 years, this should have been part of annual campaigns like earthquake and fire.
I’m dismayed with Newsom for not clearly stating how close to the offramp we are.
When a kid on vacation asks “are we there yet?” The wrong answer is “soon...shut up.” You give them a map and teach them how to read the freeway signs.
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kazlx
Well-Known Member
When I said you're, that wasn't clear, it was referring to the state/politicians and it's still true. They are arbitrarily picking which businesses are 'essential' and putting people out of work with no recourse. I work in emergency response in one of the biggest cities in OC. We haven't had any issues from the beginning. I also understand the whole 'if we get ahead of it and nothing happens, people complain it wasn't an issue, issue'. I actually think we are on the same page. I'm not saying there should be no response and that we should do nothing. I'm not even saying that we go full green light. This whole issue just highlights what pieces of Sh!t all politicians actually are and they truly don't give a Sh!t about anyone but themselves. That can be illustrated of why it takes a 200 something page document to cut people checks for $1200. When you looked at the situation, people have, for the most part behaved. And that's why the problems are going to get worse. There is no plan, or at least no plan that's being conveyed to the people. I have friends that are out of work, no recourse, not nearly enough or even access to unemployment. There are plenty of people that will have their lives destroyed from this the longer it goes, without ever even getting sick. People just want a game plan and they aren't getting it. And ultimately, the shitty part is the people making the decisions are affected by their own decisions in the least. A semi-joking example is I don't see Newsom having a problem getting a haircut. There's just so many people getting screwed over and the we don't even have the slightest idea of the ripple effects of all this yet.
You pretty much hit the nail on the head and that to me is the biggest issue. People are only going to take being treated like children for so long. Combine that with the epic failures that have just gone on at our city level, the wasting of money and resources for the dumbest reasons and I can only imagine what that equates to up the chain of government.
Sassyquatch
Well-Known Member
I used to hold a similar view re politicians and all being corrupt, etc. Then I had an epiphany (the insight kind, provably not the manifestation of a divine being kind) a couple years back: I could barely name more than a couple dozen politicians (well maybe more, but a tiny fraction of the total), so upon what data am I basing that conclusion? Couple that with the “if it bleeds, it leads” tendency for media, which is definitely market-driven, where mostly the foibles and failings of a few (again relative to all comers) prominent politicians is emphasized, and I suspect my gut/gestalt is extrapolating to all from that limited sample.
with some notable exceptions, I suspect that what people perceive as this rampant corruption, etc, may be more attributable to politicians being fallible people representing very diverse groups, some of whom have mutually exclusive/contradictory ideas of what is good/moral/right/just (in some areas...I suspect most people actually fundamentally agree on 90ish percent of things when tribalistic framing and semantics is stripped away).
To someone not of a similar mindset to that group regarding one or many of those issues, it would look exactly like dishonesty/dissembling/corruption, etc, especially when compromises with the other factions have to be made.
My ramblings only, and probably wrong, but maybe not....
kazlx
Well-Known Member
I work for local city government and have quite a bit of information about what goes on that probably 99% of the public isn't privy to. They aren't any better people than most people believe IMO. City council, the mayor, etc. They bicker like children, act like the rules/laws they enact don't apply to them, pass laws/rules/ordinances that benefit them and their friends/beneficiaries. It's truly an eye-opening experience to see what goes on in a city (the lowest level of government) and just extrapolate that to the state and feds. I have also worked for about a year at a state agency and it was even worse. Most of the people are borderline worthless, which is the main reason I left.
Faust29
Moderator
You're getting the seat front and center in the "Research and Bibliography 101" class I'm offering. If you misbehave in class, you have to ride a rigid single speed for the rest of the year.
Faust29
Moderator
Death certificates have the dr fill out the immediate cause of death, and then what underlying factors caused that immediate cause, and any other illnesses they might have had. So it’s possible that someone gets in a car accident and dies when the weakened lungs fail. Cause of death: lung failure. Due to: trauma and covid complications. Due to: auto accident.
nothing at all unusual in any of it. Anyone suspecting a coverup is looking in the wrong place.
Ockham’s razor. The best a man can get
And this has been the norm for 100 years... I order death certificates all the time for distant ancestors, and there are always multiple causes, listed in order of significance. Thankfully, gangrene and diarrhea aren't as common on the modern ones!
I guess those old time doctors were scamming the system preparing for the future coronavirus... Helping the future pad the numbers.
SnakeCharmer
iMTB Hooligan
I was at Children's this morning to work an account and the b!tchee nurse almost didn't let me in. She told me that I had to check in elsewhere at the facility but I knew better because I had been screened where she was before. She asked this and asked me that and she thought that I was an employee. The security guard told her that this was where private contractors were to be screened. So she finally scanned my forehead to check my temp. The grump wouldn't even tell me what my temp was. But, I finally got through so that I could do my work. 
da big hills
iMTB Rockstah
good news: the gov has shut the beaches. In Ventura County we have almost 900,000 people. We have 140 active cases of which 20 are in the hospital. I ride the trails as they are legal. But signs are up that they could close at any time. I do believe it is time to get on with life. Or maybe we are inflicting pain for other reasons.
Happy empty legal trails
The chances of getting too close to a sicko are .0015%. we should stay closed
Happy empty legal trails
The chances of getting too close to a sicko are .0015%. we should stay closed
BonsaiNut
iMTB Rockstah
False news. On this site, the "rate of spread" of coronavirus is almost wholly dependent on the "rate of testing". Note that the vertical scale is "confirmed cases". If I have coronavirus, but am not tested, does that mean I don't have it?
No matter what you take away from this pandemic, one thing should be: the actual rate of coronavirus in the general population is MUCH higher than the 'confirmed, tested' rate. Therefore the "rate of spread" is unknown. I have read some reports that suggest coronavirus was spreading in this country in January - a month before the first "confirmed case".
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