Coronavirus. Not to be confused with Norcovirus.

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Faust29 said:
I did mention the flu, because it's been thrown around in this thread oft in yearly amounts. We're at 1/4 the time, with a minute fraction of the potential human interactions that are required to transmit disease- social distancing. I'm no math wizard, but would we want to see that same rate or more (58,000/ 3 months) continue for a year?
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I've regularly thrown out the flu as a point of comparison, so let me state my position. It isn't that flu isn't bad or that CoViD-19 isn't bad... it's to compare our response to the two diseases.

One happens annually, and we spend very little. One is new, and we shut down our economy, spent $ trillions, made 20% of the population unemployed, killed who knows how many by shutting down our health system, caused suicides, etc. At this point I can thankfully say CoViD-19 hasn't killed anyone in my family... but our RESPONSE to it has probably killed one of my cousins and put other family members at risk because they are being denied medical care. Meanwhile we are bailing out hospitals because they are "losing revenues" because they aren't treating as many people for numerous other diseases / conditions. Did people just stop getting injured or sick?

And as far as your thoughts about CoViD-19 continuing for a year... it can't - because we are getting close to herd immunity. No one really knows how many people have already developed immunity, but some parts of the country are already testing 20%+ (New York City is supposedly at 25%). Herd immunity is already likely kicking in, since these 20% are probably the people with the highest amount of social contact. Spanish flu maxxed out at about 33% total population incidence after three years. No one has ever said "practice social distancing because we don't want you to get this disease, ever." It has been "practice social distancing because we don't want everyone to get this disease at the same time." Without a vaccine, this disease is going to play itself out in our population. Low risk people are going to get it and develop herd immunity. High risk people are (hopefully) going to be protected until herd immunity kicks in.
 
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BonsaiNut said:
I've regularly thrown out the flu as a point of comparison, so let me state my position. It isn't that flu isn't bad or that CoViD-19 isn't bad... it's to compare our response to the two diseases.

One happens annually, and we spend very little. One is new, and we shut down our economy, spent $ trillions, made 20% of the population unemployed, killed who knows how many by shutting down our health system, caused suicides, etc. At this point I can thankfully say CoViD-19 hasn't killed anyone in my family... but our RESPONSE to it has probably killed one of my cousins and put other family members at risk because they are being denied medical care. Meanwhile we are bailing out hospitals because they are "losing revenues" because they aren't treating as many people for numerous other diseases / conditions. Did people just stop getting injured or sick?

And as far as your thoughts about CoViD-19 continuing for a year... it can't - because we are getting close to herd immunity. No one really knows how many people have already developed immunity, but some parts of the country are already testing 20%+ (New York City is supposedly at 25%). Herd immunity is already likely kicking in, since these 20% are probably the people with the highest amount of social contact. Spanish flu maxxed out at about 33% total population incidence after three years. No one has ever said "practice social distancing because we don't want you to get this disease, ever." It has been "practice social distancing because we don't want everyone to get this disease at the same time." Without a vaccine, this disease is going to play itself out in our population. Low risk people are going to get it and develop herd immunity. High risk people are (hopefully) going to be protected until herd immunity kicks in.
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You guys are going round and round in circles. COVID-19 is a bike and the people are the wheels.

This is worse than the flu simply because many are spreading it around, unaware that they are infected because they have no symptoms. The flu ALWAYS has symptoms, specific symptoms. So, that one fact right there puts the brakes on the idea of overreacting and over preparing. It’s better to be over prepared than it is to be under prepared. Simple logic.

Examples of being over prepared:
*savings
*cupboards full of food
*filling your gas tank
*retirement accounts
*life insurance policies
....and the list goes on....

I also get the feeling (I am not pointing the finger at anyone here) that some are OK with spreading it around, as though it was “only” the Chicken Pox. This is not the Chicken Pox. This thing kills most of the seniors that it infects as well as many “healthy” people of younger ages. Would those same people be OK with spreading the Flu around as well? Humanity does not operate on the “The strong will survive” attitude, at least not when it comes to life or death.

I have turned it around another half cycle. Attack again with your counter measures if you must. :facepalm:
 
SnakeCharmer said:
This thing kills most of the seniors that it infects as well as many “healthy” people of younger ages.
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I do not disagree with the majority of what you wrote, but in my attempt to slay false statistics where I see them, I wish you would post the source of information for this statement.

I can find nothing that gets close to 50% of reported cases (note not "infected seniors" but "seniors who are infected and who report for medical care"). Even among the most elderly, case fatality rates (CFR) have not approached 50%. In China, the CFR for seniors >= 80 years was 14.8% (as of 4/30). In Italy, the CFR for those >=90 was 19.4% for females, and 32.3% for males.

No one knows what the "true" fatality rate for this disease is, since they have not been able to confirm the true case rates. In other words, many who come down with the disease are asymptomatic or have mild symptoms that don't require care. In the US, cases rates (from several different studies) are now suggesting the presence of the disease at 20x or even 50x the rate as the "confirmed case" count. I have not seen any attempt to break this out by age group. So all we know is the real case rate is higher... but we don't know how much higher. Therefore, the true fatality rate is lower... but we don't know how much lower.

I hope no one trolls me by suggesting that I don't think this is a serious disease. Even a 1% fatality rate is horrific. But the hyperbole and half-truths are what have trapped us in this situation. Is it likely that fatality rates for CoViD-19 are higher than those of seasonal flu? It seems likely - particularly among at-risk populations. But we need to stop saying things like "kills most of the seniors it infects".
 
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sir crashalot said:
Newsom is expected to announce today that all CA beaches and state parks will hard close tomorrow until further notice. Thanks to the crowded spectacle at Newport last weekend. I don’t understand why that can’t be just closed on weekends. Ride chino hills or el Moro today folks
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I looked at the photos of Newport Beach and thought that although there were a fair amount of people they were spead out and following the social distancing fairly well. It depends on the perspective of your view if appeared over crowded or not.
IMO an over reaction by calif.

Happy county trails to me!
 
Here's some real statistics: 50 individuals die at one nursing home and 30+ at another. How many times has that occurred with any other disease? Sounds like this is a good way to get rid of elderly and compromised individuals. Who knows (agreed nobody) what the carnage would have been without draconian measures. Look at Vietnam where they basically adopted the Chinese system of control. A few cases, maybe one death.
 
BonsaiNut said:
I've regularly thrown out the flu as a point of comparison, so let me state my position. It isn't that flu isn't bad or that CoViD-19 isn't bad... it's to compare our response to the two diseases.

One happens annually, and we spend very little. One is new, and we shut down our economy, spent $ trillions, made 20% of the population unemployed, killed who knows how many by shutting down our health system, caused suicides, etc. At this point I can thankfully say CoViD-19 hasn't killed anyone in my family... but our RESPONSE to it has probably killed one of my cousins and put other family members at risk because they are being denied medical care. Meanwhile we are bailing out hospitals because they are "losing revenues" because they aren't treating as many people for numerous other diseases / conditions. Did people just stop getting injured or sick?

And as far as your thoughts about CoViD-19 continuing for a year... it can't - because we are getting close to herd immunity. No one really knows how many people have already developed immunity, but some parts of the country are already testing 20%+ (New York City is supposedly at 25%). Herd immunity is already likely kicking in, since these 20% are probably the people with the highest amount of social contact. Spanish flu maxxed out at about 33% total population incidence after three years. No one has ever said "practice social distancing because we don't want you to get this disease, ever." It has been "practice social distancing because we don't want everyone to get this disease at the same time." Without a vaccine, this disease is going to play itself out in our population. Low risk people are going to get it and develop herd immunity. High risk people are (hopefully) going to be protected until herd immunity kicks in.
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One side focuses on economics out of fear, and one side focuses on the number of dead out of fear. I understand fully what is happening to the economy. If you read my posts, I've never stated explicitly which way I lean as far as re-opening, but it seems that you've assumed in your response. I honestly don't know... Either approach is going to be wrong. Do I think closing was wrong, though? Nope... Even with my conservative bias and an MBA hanging on the wall. Some things trump the almighty dollar, and my bank account. In a few weeks, when I have both kids home in my "empty" nest, ask me again... I might have a different answer! :facepalm: Read the WSJ piece on comparing this to the flu... They explain it partially in economics terms. One of the better articles I've seen through all this... And there's my own confirmation bias creeping in. There's already enough in this thread to fill a tanker. I may as well join.

As far as the herd immunity that is bandied about, I'd question any data on that... I won't take the "who gives a F" where the information comes from approach. Especially with the lack of testing that you have mentioned since the inception of this thread, and which the Trump administration is saying we don't really need anyway. Far cry from the "everyone who wants a test can get a test". And a far cry from what every developed country on the planet says is necessary. The Swedes, who are actually kinda sorta trying the herd immunity approach (Their health officials deny that was the goal...) say they won't have any idea about the effectiveness of their approach for a long time in the future. But we know? Their death rate is higher than any of their neighbors, and close to some of the worst hotspots we've seen around the world. That won't matter to one side, though, because their restaurants are humming along and you can still get a moccachino! Culturally, the Swedes tend to trust their elected officials, though.

It all comes down to how many you're willing to sacrifice, and how much you're willing to do to achieve it. Easy for armchair quarterbacks. My personal sacrificial lamb quotient is pretty low if wearing a mask and curtailing activities can keep someone alive. @herzalot (I believe) asked you for your solution to dealing with the onslaught of cases in hard hit areas. Pretty sure you never really answered. In this thread, it seems that there are a few willing to sacrifice a lot for a buck... I'm honestly glad I'm not one of them. I'm even more glad they aren't in charge of anything other than this thread.

As an aside... I do know people in the NY hotspot- quite a few. And I've paid closer attention to the nursing homes that are being wiped out across NY state- even in the rural areas. I guess those old goats are fine as sacrificial lambs...


And to get away from the back and forth, here's something you can appreciate: My new pond! We're not keeping the fish, though. The wife only wants Lilly pads.

IMG_1616.jpeg
 
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Danimal said:
I looked at the photos of Newport Beach and thought that although there were a fair amount of people they were spead out and following the social distancing fairly well. It depends on the perspective of your view if appeared over crowded or not.
IMO an over reaction by calif.

Happy county trails to me!
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The deputies on the ground said the same thing... People were staying in their groups, and they didn't have a problem with people not following the rules.

This is a behavioral disease... I think it was @Sidewalk who said when this first started that we've not behaved well in the past even with the normal flu (I'm paraphrasing). People walking around sick, etc... We may have a societal shift as far as that behavior is concerned. I'm hopeful, at least...
 
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I'm not Math major but I have a calculator built into my Iphone...

If we assume that half the population will need to get infected to achieve herd immunity, and 0.6% of the infected citizens will die form it..... that is a seven figure number (in this country alone) of dead.
Assuming these numbers prove to be correct (big assumption), each one of us will have to figure out how to adjust their behavior individually. The level of social distancing compliance will determine how quickly this country will achieve herd immunity and the cost of it.
 
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Faust29 said:
@herzalot (I believe) asked you for your solution to dealing with the onslaught of cases in hard hit areas. Pretty sure you never really answered.
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I think he actually did submit a response with a plan for systematic re-opening in response to my request. I'm waaaaay too lazy to scour the 45 pages to find it.

I keep saying the same thing anytime anyone throws out the latest statistics that match their preferred agenda:

....therefore....?
 
BonsaiNut said:
I do not disagree with the majority of what you wrote, but in my attempt to slay false statistics where I see them, I wish you would post the source of information for this statement.

I can find nothing that gets close to 50% of reported cases (note not "infected seniors" but "seniors who are infected and who report for medical care"). Even among the most elderly, case fatality rates (CFR) have not approached 50%. In China, the CFR for seniors >= 80 years was 14.8% (as of 4/30). In Italy, the CFR for those >=90 was 19.4% for females, and 32.3% for males.

No one knows what the "true" fatality rate for this disease is, since they have not been able to confirm the true case rates. In other words, many who come down with the disease are asymptomatic or have mild symptoms that don't require care. In the US, cases rates (from several different studies) are now suggesting the presence of the disease at 20x or even 50x the rate as the "confirmed case" count. I have not seen any attempt to break this out by age group. So all we know is the real case rate is higher... but we don't know how much higher. Therefore, the true fatality rate is lower... but we don't know how much lower.

I hope no one trolls me by suggesting that I don't think this is a serious disease. Even a 1% fatality rate is horrific. But the hyperbole and half-truths are what have trapped us in this situation. Is it likely that fatality rates for CoViD-19 are higher than those of seasonal flu? It seems likely - particularly among at-risk populations. But we need to stop saying things like "kills most of the seniors it infects".
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No need to get so deep. Leave it simple. Being concerned enough to continue to questioning every little thing is just adding distress to an already stressful situation. It’s not helping. It’s complicating things even more. I hope you find peace.

Sadly, I have a personal fact to include. I’m sure that everyone heard about the senior homes that got wiped out in places around the state? My cousin’s aunt was in one of them and everyone died.
 
SnakeCharmer said:
No need to get so deep. Leave it simple. Being concerned enough to continue to questioning every little thing is just adding distress to an already stressful situation. It’s not helping. It’s complicating things even more. I hope you find peace.

Sadly, I have a personal fact to include. I’m sure that everyone heard about the senior homes that got wiped out in places around the state? My cousin’s aunt was in one of them and everyone died.
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Perspective is different when you are personally affected.
 
SnakeCharmer said:
No need to get so deep. Leave it simple. Being concerned enough to continue to questioning every little thing is just adding distress to an already stressful situation. It’s not helping. It’s complicating things even more. I hope you find peace.

Sadly, I have a personal fact to include. I’m sure that everyone heard about the senior homes that got wiped out in places around the state? My cousin’s aunt was in one of them and everyone died.
Click to expand...

I don't think the numbers stress Bonsai... He geeks out on them.
 
Mikie was correct; 47 pages and this is a discussion like religion or politics. Bunch of opinions which haven't changed. For many, me included, it's how they were impacted personally. I'm delighted that my family, friends, acquaintances and I are still alive. Without these measures, who knows?
 
Faust29 said:
The deputies on the ground said the same thing... People were staying in their groups, and they didn't have a problem with people not following the rules.

This is a behavioral disease... I think it was @Sidewalk who said when this first started that we've not behaved well (I'm paraphrasing) even with the normal flu. People walking around sick, etc... We may have a societal shift as far as that behavior is concerned. I'm hopeful, at least...
Click to expand...

The photographer was indeed using a long lens so it made a long stretch of beach look more condensed in depth.

“In photography, a long-focus lens is a camera lens which has a focal length that is longer than the diagonal measure of the film or sensor that receives its image. It is used to make distant objects appear magnified with magnification increasing as longer focal length lenses are used.” -Wikipedia

“Photographer Mindy Schauer, who has worked at the Register for more than 20 years, shot the photo from the Newport Beach pier with a long lens because she wanted to get as much of the beach as she could to accurately depict the scene.”
-OC Register

I was undecided in my major when I started college and was into photography at the time and took some courses. It was just before digital started to rise so glad I chose the finance route over photography. :) It still interests me though.
 
Cornholio said:
The photographer was indeed using a long lens so it made a long stretch of beach look more condensed in depth.

“In photography, a long-focus lens is a camera lens which has a focal length that is longer than the diagonal measure of the film or sensor that receives its image. It is used to make distant objects appear magnified with magnification increasing as longer focal length lenses are used.” -Wikipedia

“Photographer Mindy Schauer, who has worked at the Register for more than 20 years, shot the photo from the Newport Beach pier with a long lens because she wanted to get as much of the beach as she could to accurately depict the scene.”
-OC Register

I was undecided in my major when I started college and was into photography at the time and took some courses. It was just before digital started to rise so glad I chose the finance route over photography. :) It still interests me though.
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Nice... I dabbled, and had a very nice collection of lenses at one point. Still find it fascinating!
 
Let's start a cover band. We'll call ourselves Social Distancion.....

We can rewrite social distortion songs and make them about wearing masks, staying 6 feet apart, washing our hands, and on so on.....

We'll be a hit with the kids....
And by kids I mean the last cohorts of gen xers, and early wave of millennials......
The real kids will probably hate us
 
Wow you guys ran off and did a bunch of typing without me...

one point in herd immunity-it’s not one number. The 50-70% figures people talk about assume zero countermeasures, not even extra hand washing. Full compliance with everything we’ve been told to do brings the herd immunity number down to zero percent. Where the only way for a community to get the disease is for it to be brought in from outside.

Hand washing is only a little effective, it basically slows things down and reduces the herd % a tiny bit. a full-compliance global lockdown drives the germ to extinction in two weeks. We’re gonna be in the middle somewhere...

Im guessing chicken pox would kill a lot of 80 year olds too, good thing they got it 70 years ago...
 
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