Coronavirus. Not to be confused with Norcovirus.

Status
Not open for further replies.
rossage said:
"No large gatherings till 2021"...Woke up to an email from the San Diego County Fair-cancelled.
Expecting the rest of the Counties to follow suit.
The Fairs may say County but they're overseen by the CA State Agricultural Association.
There goes my business for the year!
Time to make a sign and pick a good off-ramp...:unsure:
Click to expand...
Ouch, that sucks man. Hope things work out for ya. I’m pretty sure the Laguna Beach art festivals will be canceled or heavily impacted this summer. I don’t depend on that for my income anymore but I know many who do.
 
Good job, California! On the Johns Hopkins site, they are now reporting real-time incidence rates (to adjust for state population, instead of just reporting total cases).

Incidence rate in California: 72 per 100,000 population (0.072%)
Incidence rate in North Carolina: 57 per 100,000 population (0.057%)

Compare those two numbers to the incidence rate in New York: 1,327 per 100,000 population (1.327%) and New Jersey: 848 per 100,000 population (0.848%) and you can get a better idea how much worse the disease is in those two states. From an incidence perspective, this disease has really settled along the NE seaboard, from Boston south to DC. California is actually on the low end of the scale in terms of incidence across all 50 states. The lowest incidence is in Minnesota, with 39 per 100,000 incidence (0.039%) Second lowest is in Oregon, with 43 per 100,000 incidence (0.043%)

(Note again - these numbers are all based on testing rates and total cases that have been confirmed through testing, and the testing rates across states are not consistent, and many cases have recovered. But it is the only data available.)
 
Last edited:
It's going to be years before we settle on numbers...

https://www.newsweek.com/us-coronav...berg-says-cdc-advisory-council-member-1498352

U.S. CORONAVIRUS DEATH TOLL MAY ONLY BE 'TIP OF THE ICEBERG,' SAYS CDC ADVISORY COUNCIL MEMBER


Edit: Although it does boggle my mind that some still say it's not a big deal, and everything is over-inflated. 4600 Americans died... In a 24 hour period (The Wall Street Journal). Not counting those who died untested at home. I guess it's not real unless it's happening in front of our noses.
 
Last edited:
Thanks for all the kind words.
mike said:
Sorry to hear it! Resourceful people will be resourceful, no off-ramp for you. :geek:

My work is way off, too. It can't go on forever. But right now I'm going to enjoy the light schedule.

You got this! :)
Click to expand...


Yeah!
Thanks for all the kind words. We saw this coming a while back so we're not surprised. We fully expect the other Fairs to follow, or (hopefully) postpone.

Not ready to sell any Krugerrands, yet.:whistling:
 
rossage said:
Thanks for all the kind words.



Yeah!
Thanks for all the kind words. We saw this coming a while back so we're not surprised. We fully expect the other Fairs to follow, or (hopefully) postpone.

Not ready to sell any Krugerrands, yet.:whistling:
Click to expand...

Fair related. I feel bad for all the kids in 4H and FFA raising livestock. Still have to care for their animals and without the Fair will have very limited options to sell their animals and recoup their money. Especially the FFA kids because that is run through schools.
 
Faust29 said:
It's going to be years before we settle on numbers...

https://www.newsweek.com/us-coronav...berg-says-cdc-advisory-council-member-1498352

U.S. CORONAVIRUS DEATH TOLL MAY ONLY BE 'TIP OF THE ICEBERG,' SAYS CDC ADVISORY COUNCIL MEMBER


Edit: Although it does boggle my mind that some still say it's not a big deal, and everything is over-inflated. 4600 Americans died... In a 24 hour period (The Wall Street Journal). Not counting those who died untested at home. I guess it's not real unless it's happening in front of our noses.
Click to expand...


Maybe some of this going on?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ps...ng-why-millions-can-die-and-we-don-t-care?amp
 
Sort-of good news: you may have visited the IHME website, or heard someone say something about it. They are the folks that put out the projections that got the headlines.

The good news is they’ve added a feature: they now predict for each state when the virus will be contained enough to open up everything that’s not a large gathering. So for those whose livelihoods are tied to large gatherings...:poop:

North Carolina: May 11
California: May 18
Arizona: June 8

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/california
 
fos'l said:
Where is she now that we need her. We've got these high-priced yokels that haven't discovered anything new except conflicting information.
Click to expand...
This is how science works. You publish something. Someone tries to replicate your experiment. Often it fails to replicate. So you try something else.

The only difference from how most of us in science & engineering do our jobs daily is that the entire planet is watching this, and in some ways the entire planet feels like its the experiment.

I’m not disagreeing with you—there is a lot of conflicting information. I’m just saying that it’s a) to be expected, and b) not entirely due to incompetence and/or negligence.
 
tick said:
This is how science works. You publish something. Someone tries to replicate your experiment. Often it fails to replicate. So you try something else.

The only difference from how most of us in science & engineering do our jobs daily is that the entire planet is watching this, and in some ways the entire planet feels like its the experiment.

I’m not disagreeing with you—there is a lot of conflicting information. I’m just saying that it’s a) to be expected, and b) not entirely due to incompetence and/or negligence.
Click to expand...

agree with this. Also, I would draw a sharp distinction between scientific research and scientific reporting. The former is often very cautious in conclusions, particularly at the leading edge of new phenomena. The latter tends toward jumping the gun on conclusions...I suspect often from lack of understanding the difference between isolated studies and scientific consensus.
 
Thanks for your replies. I've done my share of research and was kind of venting. By now one would think there would be something more definitive about transmission of the virus, its survival rate in various environments and whether it exists in more than one form. These are pretty rudimentary experiments. Also, why did it take so much longer to get to the "OC" than NY when we have individuals who travel nationally and internationally too? Why does Nassau County, NY have a much higher (I've heard 60X) per capita rate of infection than the "OC" when the areas are somewhat similar (I realize that the amount of testing performed is a factor)? @Faust29 showed the suggestions made in a 1918 newspaper article about that flu (which killed my grandmother and sickened my aunt who was a baby at the time) and the things they've told us to do aren't much more sophisticated. Maybe I'm expecting too much.
 
Last edited:
fos'l said:
Thanks for your replies. I've done my share of research and was kind of venting. By now one would think there would be something more definitive about transmission of the virus, its survival rate in various environments and whether it exists in more than one form. These are pretty rudimentary experiments. Also, why did it take so much longer to get to the "OC" than NY when we have individuals who travel nationally and internationally too? Why does Nassau County, NY have a much higher (I've heard 60X) per capita rate of infection than the "OC" when the areas are somewhat similar (I realize that the amount of testing performed is a factor)? @Faust showed the suggestions made in a 1918 newspaper article about that flu (which killed my grandmother and sickened my aunt who was a baby at the time) and the things they've told us to do aren't much more sophisticated. Maybe I'm expecting too much.
Click to expand...
There’s actually quite a lot of good info out there regarding the virus’ behavior:
https://stanfordhealthcare.org/stan...virus/informational-webinars-on-covid-19.html

regarding the NY vs CA difference:
1) the NYC metro area’s public transit usage is way higher
2) travel from China to LA was curtailed before travel from Italy to NY
3)N.Y. waited 4 days after CA to shut down, at a point when the infections were doubling almost daily

the fact that we don’t have anything better than social distancing yet is mostly due to how long it takes to develop countermeasures. The fact that China lied to the world about the virus means we’re a few months later than we could be too.

The behavior of the virus in less ill/asymptomatic patients is still a source of worry. The testing capability has not grown as fast as anyone had hoped, and it sounds like the antibody testing is giving some interesting results.

It’s important to consider that this virus isn’t really all that deadly to most of us. It would really suck if we rushed out a cure that killed more people than the disease...
 
Last edited:
tick said:
When it’s all over, what I want to know is why OC’s positive test percentage is so low. If it’s because we’re doing good contact tracing and testing everyone whos ever been near a sick person, that’s the best possible answer...
Click to expand...

I'm going to go with lower population density compared to LA (and NY), and a lower median age compared to the surrounding counties. We'll find out in 6 months to a year if I'm right.
 
Runs with Scissors said:
I'm going to go with lower population density compared to LA (and NY), and a lower median age compared to the surrounding counties. We'll find out in 6 months to a year if I'm right.
Click to expand...
That doesn’t explain why test results are different. To get a test you either have to a) have multiple symptoms, and typically severe symptoms, or b) know someone who does. So it’s possible that OC was just better at getting uninfected friends tested.
 
tick said:
When it’s all over, what I want to know is why OC’s positive test percentage is so low. If it’s because we’re doing good contact tracing and testing everyone whos ever been near a sick person, that’s the best possible answer...
Click to expand...

some reporting on better adherence to guidelines in CA than NYC...

Some guesses on possible additional factors for OC vs NY: higher vitamin D levels (more sunshine), more of an exercise culture and healthier lifestyles in general, less stress, all immunity boosters, especially the early components necessary to prevent infection in an exposed person.
 
tick said:
That doesn’t explain why test results are different. To get a test you either have to a) have multiple symptoms, and typically severe symptoms, or b) know someone who does. So it’s possible that OC was just better at getting uninfected friends tested.
Click to expand...

I'm just referring to lower overall numbers: Number of confirmed cases, number of deaths, and the resulting death rate. As of today, OC had 1,556 cases (confirmed...how many really? Who knows?) and 32 deaths. That's a rate of 2.1%.

LA has 12.021 / 576 for a rate of 4.8%.
 
Sassyquatch said:
some reporting on better adherence to guidelines in CA than NYC...

Some guesses on possible additional factors for OC vs NY: higher vitamin D levels (more sunshine), more of an exercise culture and healthier lifestyles in general, less stress, all immunity boosters, especially the early components necessary to prevent infection in an exposed person.
Click to expand...

That's a very nice way to put both of those ideas... Having lived the culture in that state, I wouldn't be so kind. And I'm not surprised by the resistance to early social distancing measures. I know of many large family Easter gatherings... It was "just" family.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top