Coronavirus. Not to be confused with Norcovirus.

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Runs with Scissors said:
I'm just referring to lower overall numbers: Number of confirmed cases, number of deaths, and the resulting death rate. As of today, OC had 1,556 cases (confirmed...how many really? Who knows?) and 32 deaths. That's a rate of 2.1%.

LA has 12.021 / 576 for a rate of 4.8%.
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I still compare those numbers to my childhood area... Erie County, NY. The population is only 950,000, but they have over 8000 (typo... Should be 2100 cases) cases and 131 deaths. Other than the city of Buffalo, most of the county is rural. The roads were designed around the farmers' fields for most of it. Not exactly the packed subways and tenements of NYC. o_O

Behavior and culture... Thankfully, I've convinced my brothers to keep my mother stocked and in the house.
 
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So the 200 vehicles headed for Laguna today to demonstrate their disdain for their social obligations might mess that up a bit. Live Free or Die is supposed to mean putting yourself at risk for your freedoms not putting others at risk because you don't like the situation.
 
Faust29 said:
I still compare those numbers to my childhood area... Erie County, NY. The population is only 950,000, but they have over 8000 cases and 131 deaths.
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131 deaths out of 8,000 cases is a mortality rate of 1.6%....

Comparatively not that bad. 1/3 the density of Los Angeles County. Just about 1/3 the rate.
 
Faust29 said:
No... But 131 deaths in a total population of 950,000 versus 32 deaths in a population of 3.2 million is bad...

Sorry... I mistyped in my earlier post. You need to do the math again. :Roflmao The total cases is only 2000. I've had a couple beers... Might have more!
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Well, yeah, 2,000 is a bit less than 8,000. I'll join you in another beer. :thumbsup: Over the internet, of course. :p
 
herzalot said:
Not sure that's how contagion works. I don't think you can contain it to the willing.
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If I stay home from your gathering, I probably won't contract whatever it is to be contracted. If I choose to join in, then I agree to risk it. That's exactly how contagion works.

Yep, I'm aware that you (the generic you) may contract it, and then spread it later. That works for any contagious disease.
 
herzalot said:
So the 200 vehicles headed for Laguna today to demonstrate their disdain for their social obligations might mess that up a bit. Live Free or Die is supposed to mean putting yourself at risk for your freedoms not putting others at risk because you don't like the situation.
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Was one of those 200 vehicles yours by any chance? :whistling:
 
So all the rebels risk catching something and bringing it home to their families or their neighbors or others they interact with. And yes, any contagious disease. But I think we've established in 42 pages that this isn't any contagious disease. At least I hope we have! But maybe we haven't. Keep arguing people!
 
herzalot said:
So all the rebels risk catching something and bringing it home to their families or their neighbors or others they interact with. And yes, any contagious disease. But I think we've established in 42 pages that this isn't any contagious disease. At least I hope we have! But maybe we haven't. Keep arguing people!
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To take a page from your playbook....then let's never leave our homes, because to do so while wearing our masks and washing (or purelling - is that a verb now?) our hands might lead to the (very remote) chance of contracting the plague. Or COVID 19. Or COVID 1 (SARS) which is apparently 80% identical.

No, we don't yet have a vaccine, but we do know how to avoid catching a virus whether it be COVID 19, the flu, or the common cold. The fact that we don't yet have a vaccine should be all the more reason to take those precautions, but let's not go apeshit.
 
herzalot said:
Like doing a large social gathering to show how much you hate the current restrictions?
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I don't recall saying that, but then again I haven't seen any large social gatherings. A couple hundred people on an open-air street isn't that.

The rooftop party in Los Angeles (I think) wasn't that much different. A few hundred people, in an open-air setting.

Much different than boozing it up in a bar. Or restaurant.
 
Math teachers are awesome. Now you can run your own scenarios on this website and draw your own conclusions.

https://www.nctm.org/Classroom-Reso...nteractives/Pandemics-How-Are-Viruses-Spread/

my favorite part of this sim is that the same inputs can yield vastly different results. Just re-run the same scenario over and over...a classic Monte Carlo Simulation.

it’s very instructive to use a set of disease parameters that give a nice curve, then alter the one parameter we can affect-the number of people an infected person meets per day. In some runs, 1 person per day dies out immediately, but change to 2 persons per day and it breaks out. 3 per day and we all die.
 
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Runs with Scissors said:
Math teachers (and those who think about math all day) came up with "imaginary numbers." :whistling: Because that's the only way their equations would work.

Take from that what you will. :Roflmao

(In case you don't realize it, that was entirely tongue-in-cheek and meant for amusement only)
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Imaginary numbers were merely discovered, it’s imprecise to say they were invented. It’s like saying Maxwell’s equations invented the electromagnetic spectrum:
87E34310-2871-4A63-9DA8-C3C81CF2D450.jpeg
 
tick said:
it’s very possible CA was just luckier than NY.
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Luck just means "I don't understand the math... yet" :) No one knows. No one really knows how many people had the disease, or have the disease currently.

Here's a great example. According to John's Hopkins, Santa Clara County has had a total of 1,870 cases. Divided by 1.93 million county population, that yields a disease incidence rate of 0.097% (or about .1% for easy math). However, in a recent study by Stanford University, they did a statistical sample of county residents and found that "between 48,000 and 81,000 residents in Santa Clara County were infected as of April 1" (at a time when the confirmed case count was slightly less than 1000). The study found that "The number of coronavirus infections in Santa Clara County could be between 50 and 80 times higher than the officially confirmed count".

Given our ignorance in this area, it is possible to conclude that some parts of the country, where testing is indicating close to 1% case rates, may be approaching the 20 - 40% level where herd immunity starts to come into play. Even on this site, we have a number of members saying "I think I may have had it." Even my WIFE is now saying she thinks she may have had it back in January... and I recall a period where I was wiped out and felt like I couldn't get out of bed, but assumed it was due to stress and travel. Heck, given asymptomatic case rates, it is likely that several members of this site have had it, and never felt a thing.

If you follow this logic, the irony is that many people sheltering in place are already immune. Of course, that is what the government has been telling us all along - that they are unable to stem the natural tide of this disease without a vaccine, and the best they can hope for is to slow it down so that our medical facilities aren't overwhelmed when dealing with the small percentage of severe cases.
 
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Derkderkall said:
Big factor is that it is believed that it got to New York via Europe. Not travelers from China...
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Yup, I heard that the east coast virus strain is the same as the European one, and its worse that the west coast/Asian strain. Also some think it’s maybe been in CA since Nov so there may be some herd immunity now here.
Faust29 said:
That's a very nice way to put both of those ideas... Having lived the culture in that state, I wouldn't be so kind. And I'm not surprised by the resistance to early social distancing measures. I know of many large family Easter gatherings... It was "just" family.
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I grew up in Brooklyn and New Jersey, moved to SoCal when I was 12. Long time ago but I remember a big difference in health/fitness proactivemess and personal space between the 2 cultures, and yeah it’s all about indoor time and big family gatherings over there! they also do the greeting hugging kissyface thing Europeans do, blech. I’m kinda antisocial, crowd averse, and non touchy feely I actually somewhat enjoy social distancing. I have no problem riding or hiking all by myself. I hope the never shaking hands thing continues! But not being able to spend time occasionally with wife’s parents has been hard, and I do miss riding with a bud or two occasionally. Always hated large group rides or hikes.
 
BonsaiNut said:
Luck just means "I don't understand the math... yet" :) No one knows. No one really knows how many people had the disease, or have the disease currently.

Here's a great example. According to John's Hopkins, Santa Clara County has had a total of 1,870 cases. Divided by 1.93 county population, that yields a disease incidence rate of 0.097% (or about .1% for easy math). However, in a recent study by Stanford University, they did a statistical sample of county residents and found that "between 48,000 and 81,000 residents in Santa Clara County were infected as of April 1" (at a time when the confirmed case count was slightly less than 1000). The study found that "The number of coronavirus infections in Santa Clara County could be between 50 and 80 times higher than the officially confirmed count".

Given our ignorance in this area, it is possible to conclude that some parts of the country, where testing is indicating close to 1% case rates, may be approaching the 20 - 40% level where herd immunity starts to come into play. Even on this site, we have a number of members saying "I think I may have had it." Even my WIFE is now saying she thinks she may have had it back in January... and I recall a period where I was wiped out and felt like I couldn't get out of bed, but assumed it was due to stress and travel. Heck, given asymptomatic case rates, it is likely that several members of this site have had it, and never felt a thing.

If you follow this logic, the irony is that many people sheltering in place are already immune. Of course, that is what the government has been telling us all along - that they are unable to stem the natural tide of this disease without a vaccine, and the best they can hope for is to slow it down so that our medical facilities aren't overwhelmed when dealing with the small percentage of severe cases.
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Starting to think I had it a few months ago. Started in my chest , no sore throat , slight fever for like two hours, then congestion, very mild overall but after I felt better lungs still felt sensitive and coughy for a long time
 
"Mine" (November) was unlike any other flu (for me) in that it was much milder. Came and left without much affect. I got a prescription for a week of cough medicine (pills) and it was gone. Hope to find out some day if there are any antibodies in my system, but it'll be awhile before I'll feel safe getting tested and by then, even if I had them, they could be gone.
 
To quantify the differences quoted earlier.
Nassau County, NY (I lived and went to college there): The "OC"
Pop: 1.36 mil 3.01 mil
Land Area 285 sq mi 791 sq mi
People/sq mi 5000 3800
COVID+ 29,000 1,556
Deaths 1109 32

We're about twice as big and populated, but (to me) the fact they waited four extra days to implement some "safety" measures, their population uses more mass transit and it's sunnier here doesn't explain the disparity, but this is for information, not to argue. Someday maybe we'll know.
 
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