Coronavirus. Not to be confused with Norcovirus.

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Well then it's easy! The population of the world is 7.7 billion. We avoided killing 7.7 billion... so we only spent about $100 per death avoided!
You can't prove a negative. The politicians will say "whoopee! look at us! we saved THE ENTIRE POPULATION OF THE COUNTRY!" Even now you have Newsome saying that if the California government doesn't do something, 56% of the people in the state will have the virus in 8 weeks. WTF? Based on WHAT? And yet some zombies actually BELIEVE him. And therein lies the problem... no matter how much is spent, no matter how much damage is done, no matter how many peoples' lives are destroyed, no one is going to ask for justification.

Newsom's stats are based on epidemiologist estimates. If you want more detail, look into it. 56% is plausible, but can change depending on the response from the public. As a comparison, H1N1 infected tens of millions in the US in the first year, and covid-19 is considered much more contagious. This doesn't mean 56% of the population will show symptoms, or hospitalize, or die. The lethality rates are moving targets until we understand how to test with high specificity. Newsom's message may be delivered poorly, which indicates a failure of his leadership, but does not dispute the underlying facts. Also, these "facts" are also estimates of experts educated in the field, but they are most certainly going to change. Most epidemiologist predict 40-70% infection rates when the dust settles, but that doesn't mean much without context (which I won't go into here). Self-quarantining and social distancing does many positive things - flatten the curve, reduce complications while society builds immunity, and allows time to observe, study, and document therapies that may save significant lives. We should weigh the risks and the benefits for the long term, and minimize economic impact. Some have said that the stay-at-home order should have come weeks earlier, but such a quick and strong order in the US may possibly spark disbelief, outrage, riots, etc. Japan, S. Korea, and China are different societies that can tolerate different things, especially since they've gone through similar epidemics in the last decade and their societies have had time to adapt.
 
However, nothing in memory has ever spread through areas like this virus has in Italy or that nursing home in WA or the family in NJ.

Well... if you think about it, seasonal flu infects about 10% of this country, EVERY YEAR, even when a vaccine is available. At the height of the flu season, one million people catch the flu EACH WEEK. People are just used to it... so no one pays much attention... even though the mortality rate for seasonal flu is 0.1%.

Let us hope this virus burns out due to seasonality... or mutates like SARS1 did... or that shelter-in-place and self-awareness cause people to be much more responsible than they are during flu season. (How strange to be reading medical articles from 16 years ago talking about SARS-CoV1... and how similar they sound to today's SARS-CoV2 situation)
 
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So basically, you are upset/angry that we are doing something other than treating this like a normal seasonal flu. We should just let it go, and if you have symptoms, stay home from work or school and maybe go get treatment?
 
The final BIG question:

Does this mean that China will FINALLY outlaw wild game being sold in food markets?

(In case people don't know, both SARS-CoV1 and SARS-CoV2 come from animals. In the case of SARS-CoV1 they traced the source back to bats. No one knows the source of SARS-CoV2 yet, other than it is an animal of some type. It may also turn out to be bats, but no one knows.)
 
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So basically, you are upset/angry that we are doing something other than treating this like a normal seasonal flu

No. I am upset / angry that our government had no clue... and even now has no clue... of what we are dealing with or how to combat it. Had they acted earlier with a reasoned, logical approach, backed with science, math and testing, we would never have gotten to this point.

Additionally, they are shooting from the hip in terms of their response. I don't think they fully understand the broad societal impact of what they are doing. Most of the people on this web site can afford to "shelter in place" for a month. I think the impact on society is going to be deeper, and more far-reaching, than anyone thinks. I think there are tons of people who were barely getting by, and the government's response to this disease is going to push them over the edge.

They should have been treating this outbreak with a scalpel. Instead they are using a sledge hammer. Yeah, the sledge hammer will be effective. But if you have a fly on your toe that you crush with a sledge hammer... was it worth it?

Plus I can't stand when the media lies to people in order to make money. The hyperbole and fear-mongering makes me want to throw up. I have stopped watching the news, and instead only read the medical press releases, because in almost every case the news is at best misleading if not outright false.

I know I am just howling at the moon. I am fortunate I do not have this disease, and no one in my family is affected. I am probably going a little stir crazy. I don't wish this disease on ANYONE, and let us just hope we can look back at it all and learn from our mistakes.
 
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No. I am upset / angry that our government has no clue... and even now has no clue... of what we are dealing with or how to combat it. Had they acted earlier with a reasoned, logical approach, backed with science, math and testing, we would never have gotten to this point.

Additionally, they are shooting from the hip in terms of their response. I don't think they fully understand the broad societal impact of what they are doing. Most of the people on this web site can afford to "shelter in place" for a month. I think the impact on society is going to be deeper, and more far-reaching, than anyone thinks. I think there are tons of people who were barely getting by, and the government's response to this disease is going to push them over the edge.

They should have been treating this outbreak with a scalpel. Instead they are using a sledge hammer. Yeah, the sledge hammer will be effective. But if you have a fly on your toe that you crush with a sledge hammer... was it worth it?

Plus I can't stand when the media lies to people in order to make money. The hyperbole and fear-mongering makes me want to throw up. I have stopped watching the news, and instead only read the medical press releases, because in almost every case the news is at best misleading if not outright false.

I know I am just howling at the moon. I am fortunate I do not have this disease, and no one in my family is affected. I am probably going a little stir crazy. I don't wish this disease on ANYONE, and let us just hope we can look back at it all and learn from our mistakes.

1,000% agree. Government has no clue how to handle something like this. I personally feel that some responsibility lands with our society as a whole. Politicians and media prey on fear and disseminate misinformation, and we as a whole don't aim to discover truth but fall on tribal mentalities and blame shifting (general statement, not putting anyone on blast). I do like that some states are already easing unemployment restrictions; this is exactly what unemployment is supposed to cover. It would be great if there was some measure of superannuation that people could draw from as well, but those funds would be hard hit as well.

One thing to note that covid-19 is not a strain of influenza. Unlike sars, mers, swine, or the 1918 strains of the flu, the medical community is starting from relative scratch. This is a big source of panic from the medical experts. However, there are some good responses and collaboration going on. China shared the first genome sequence of the virus and within days, labs across the world had machine learning algorithms that identified theoretical treatments. I'm not certain, but I believe this is how the ebola drug was identified as a possible, in-development treatment for covid-19.
 
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dude. So go out and find someone to infect your elderly loved ones, and show us all that it’s all for nothing.

I don’t really mean that at all. Keep away from sick people, and from me.

I’m not at all saying that the politicians are gonna cover themselves in glory here, but Italy can’t bury their dead fast enough.

Dude. So go out and find someone to take away you or your loved ones job, life savings, home, and health insurance, and show us that it’s all for something.
It’s not that I think money is more important than life. It certainly isn’t. I have 6 relatives 73-86, 3 who live nearby, and I am worried sick, we are doing everything we can to try to protect them from infection, fortunately they mostly stay at home. But it’s just not that simple. The reality is that financial devastation destroys and ends lives. Especially in this extreme capitalist system, where so many people are already so close to the edge, and if you don’t have a job or wealth you do not get to participate in the benefits of society, and there is little universal health or elder care for those who can’t afford insurance. If these shutdowns go on for a long time we could end up with a very large number of unemployed ,uninsured, bankrupt,and homeless, and you there will be lethal repercussions. There could be a large number of stress related illnesses, and suicides; and illnesses that would otherwise be survivable if the victim was insured or could afford health care. Hell, even many with insurance still can’t afford health care for a serious issue.
If they’re gonna put down these draconian measures, they also need to take draconian measures to ensure EVERYONE is safe from eviction or foreclosure for now, and EVERYONE gets health care, and sick pay, moving forward. Yes they are taking some measures, but it’s half-assed. Already turtle and his cronies are chipping away at the relief bill at least as of yesterday, People under $24,000 (the hardest hit) will only get half the financial relief as those over. Not all renters are safe as of yet. Testing for covid is covered, but not the treatment. So far.
I am not saying some measures, even extreme ones, aren’t warranted, but like bonsainut said, scalpel not hammer, and the repercussions need better addressing.


Really quick... just to shed some facts on your point:

There is no way to know how fast "illnesses are escalating". Remember what I wrote earlier this week about them rolling out new test kits? Here is the rate of TESTING in the US (not the rate at which CoViD-19 cases are increasing)

View attachment 62868

The availability of good test kits in the US has severely hampered our ability to know how many people have the virus. There is NO WAY anyone can use the current testing methodology to know how fast, or even if, the number of people in this country with CoViD-19 is actually increasing or decreasing. If you want to read more about the testing fiasco, here's a good read:

What went wrong with coronavirus testing in the US

The true number of cases is definitely higher than the reported number of cases - but no one knows by how much. But just because we are testing more people, and getting more positives, doesn't mean the disease is expanding. It is possible that the number of people with the disease is 10x what we know... and we are just finding them now.

Good news is that in addition to our production capacity increasing, Turkey just sent us 500,000 test kits, so testing should continue to increase. FWIW, of the over 100,000 tests conducted this week, fewer than 10% resulted in a positive - even though people were showing up with a fever and a cough. Seasonal flu is still very prevalent in many parts of the country.
Especially since we really had no idea how many cases there were here back in dec, Jan, feb...
I can’t believe I’m saying this, as outside of this mostly non political forum I make it no secret how anti-trump I am, he actually kinda almost said the sorta right thing the other night on the news. Paraphrasing, He basically said, yes, the number of confirmed cases is exploding recently because the number of tests is exploding, but the number of deaths is not increasing at the same rate so the known fatality rate is decreasing. TRUMP gets it right??!
 
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Especially since we really had no idea how many cases there were here back in dec, Jan, feb...
I can’t believe I’m saying this, as outside of this mostly non political forum I make it no secret how anti-trump I am, he actually kinda almost said the sorta right thing the other night on the news. Paraphrasing, He basically said, yes, the number of confirmed cases is exploding recently because the number of tests is exploding, but the number of deaths is not increasing at the same rate so the known fatality rate is decreasing. TRUMP gets it right??!

1 Awe Sh!t erases 5 Attaboys
 
This has been very stressful for my wife and I, MIL and aunt have memory problems and still live at home and mobile and we have to explain to them every single ducking day why they need to stay away from the stores and takeout places. They’re so used to their routines. Seems like it’s slowly sinking in to MIL, but st some point I guess we just have to stop stressing, we can’t just lock them in their homes. Can’t control everything I guess. I’m sure this is a challenge for many in this situation
 
This has been very stressful for my wife and I, MIL and aunt have memory problems and still live at home and mobile and we have to explain to them every single ducking day why they need to stay away from the stores and takeout places. They’re so used to their routines. Seems like it’s slowly sinking in to MIL, but st some point I guess we just have to stop stressing, we can’t just lock them in their homes. Can’t control everything I guess. I’m sure this is a challenge for many in this situation

Perhaps set up some new routines? Order some food for carry-out, and take them out for a picnic? Emphasize all the cool things they can do... while still staying away from people. My parents are in complete lock-down in North Carolina. My sister had been dropping off food and treats to them by leaving it on their front door step (they live in an apartment) but now they won't even let visitors in the compound - even outside the units. My mom is going nuts, and my dad wants to go out for a drive, even though he is recovering from lung surgery. I can't imagine how they're going to feel in a week, but my sister and I keep begging them to stay put.
 
My mom is 65 next month.....has a history of respitory issues including multiple multiple bouts of pneumonia.....she is pretty much quarantined inside. She normally babysits my niece several times a week, but has been on a "sorry grandma can't see you right now cause this illness could kill her".

My dad will be 70 later this year, but he is in much better health.

Still I worry about the both of them.
 
Especially since we really had no idea how many cases there were here back in dec, Jan, feb...
??!

I think I had this in Jan but will never know. Similar to the flu, but not the flu and way worse. When started i thought it was bronchitis, but then illness went nuclear for a few days.

Drs were saying they've been seeing very sick folks for a bit before it got to this.
 
Uh... they just shut down Amazon shipping in California for anything they consider "non-essential". What that means is "anything you need that isn't food you can no longer can have delivered here".

I can have all my orders delivered to my house in North Carolina... but if I try to have anything delivered here in California I am getting a "non-delivery" message. Yay government!! Way to FORCE people to leave their homes!!!
I just ordered some tires and some Stan's Dart refills and it went through.
 
Oh we shop for them and all that. Them remembering what’s going on is the problem.
Just now. “Julie were gonna bring you guys takeout Mexican food for dinner”
“ Ok I’ll make a big salad too”
“ well we’re not eating with you we’re supposed to limit contact because if the virus, remember?”
“What virus”
“(Explains again)”
“ that’s so silly we’re not sick” now upset we’re not eating with them.
 
No. I am upset / angry that our government had no clue... and even now has no clue... of what we are dealing with or how to combat it. Had they acted earlier with a reasoned, logical approach, backed with science, math and testing, we would never have gotten to this point.

This is going to sound snarky, but it is not meant that way. It is an honest question. In your opinion, who should have done what when?
 
U get me bonsai..u get me!

Haha..when u ride everything is better... Especially as my 15 year old daughter likes to say..
Dad I had a bad day but at least it wasn't as bad as Sandy's day when she got eaten by those coyotes..
....
And we both laugh but we r crying inside a bit...
 
It is an honest question. In your opinion, who should have done what when?

Well, it's easy to play armchair warrior, and hindsight is 20/20. Just the fact that we are HAVING this discussion is proof that something / many things went horribly wrong.

SARS-CoV-1 broke out in China in 2003. We have had 17 years to prepare for the next version - particularly since China doesn't seem to want to do anything about people dealing in wild animal meat. There were actually several promising treatments for SARS that were in development... but the private companies who were working on them stopped development because they couldn't be guaranteed that someone would want to buy them after the SARS pandemic fizzled out. I'm not going to comment about whether the government should have funded development of a SARS vaccine, because I don't know what other priorities were out there. However it was a missed opportunity.

If you look at the timeline for this outbreak, we have had months to prepare. When I say "we" I don't mean "you and I" because it isn't our job to track disease and create public health policy. However it was public knowledge that a novel coronavirus was breaking out in China as early as December, 2019. By January 30, the World Health Organization declared it a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. By February 11, they were aware that the virus belonged to the same sub-genus as SARS-CoV-1, and even named it SARS-CoV-2, though no one in government (or the media) told people it was for all intents and purposes the SARS virus, just in a more virulent form. Even now people are calling it "CoViD-19" for "CoronaVirus Disease 2019" instead of what it REALLY is - SARS2.

If I believe what I read online, the textbook health policy approach when dealing with a virus like SARS-CoV-2 in early days is to (1) isolate (2) test (3) treat (4) trace. You track everyone who is incoming from the hot zone, you isolate them, you test them to see if any are positive, you treat them, and you trace anyone they might have been in contact with. So let's start with the first question: "How was someone visiting family in Wuhan, China allowed to return home to the US, and then go visit a nursing home in Kirkland, WA?" That decision cost 35 people their lives, and jumped-started the spread of the virus here in the country. I don't have the exact figures, but for the first couple of weeks there was no community spread of the virus here in the US - literally every single case was coming in from outside of the country. People were not being stopped at the borders and isolated. So that is public policy failure #1

Next, there is the whole question of testing. How is it possible that we don't have enough SARS-CoV-2 tests... and that we actually have to beg TURKEY for 500,000 tests because we can't seem to produce enough? You can read my linked article above to see what a complete and utter train wreck our domestic testing policy has been, but the outcome is that we don't have the slightest clue how many domestic cases might exist, and we have been unable even to allow people with symptoms to get tested so they themselves know to what extent they need to self-isolate, or how much at risk their loved ones might be. In fact tonight I heard that they aren't even testing for SARS-CoV-2 "if the results of the test won't impact your treatment plan". In other words, if you read the fine print on all of these "active cases" charts, you will see that active cases include "assumed SARS-CoV-2 cases" because they can't even test people dying in ICU's to definitively know what they're dying from. So that is public policy failure #2.

Because they have been unable to isolate or test... the virus is now prevalent in our society - albeit at a low level. Active cases are now guestimated at 26,700, but even if the TRUE number of active cases is 10x as high (at 267,000) that still means the virus is active in fewer than 0.1% of our population. But because the government has completely lost control of the "isolate and test" steps, the only alternative left is to treat the ENTIRE POPULATION even if you know that 99.9% of the people don't need to be treated. Hence the "shelter in place" for EVERYONE, the critical shortage of certain products and medical supplies - because you are telling every single person in this country to go out and stock up for three weeks of "shelter in place" when you know that 99.9% don't really need to do so. But because you can't identify and isolate the active cases, you have to go with the sledgehammer approach.

The good news is that we DO know a lot about this virus because of its close similarity to SARS-CoV-1, and all the prior work that was done on SARS. We have a jump start not only on treatment protocols, but also on development of a vaccine. And the truth is that the virus does not respond well to warm weather or high humidity, so like seasonal flu we can hope for an early summer that, though it won't cure the virus, will slow it down significantly.

In a nutshell it was too little, too late. And now the cost of treating 99.9% of people who don't need it is going to crush the economy and cause horrific hardship for many people. But it may be the only thing we can do... because we screwed everything else up and it is our last defence.
 
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I am watching the news and it would appear that a great many people are not practicing social distancing when they are out and about. The mayor stated that fines may have to be issued for those not following the order. They showed public places like the local beaches and a pier that were slammed with people. The order given is to stay home yet we are free to go out and stay active for health purposes as long as we practice social distancing. But the pics shown on the news look like people are taking the time off from work as a vacation. Not good. This is not going to help slow the spread.
 
Thank you for that detailed response. So the "who" is the CDC, the pharmaceutical companies and public health policymakers. The "when" is immediately after the SARS outbreak of 2003 and the should have done "what" is identify, isolate, test and trace.

Alternatively, the who remains the same, the when was December 2019 and the should have done what remained the same. In the interim, policymakers should have been making plans for dealing with a pandemic we knew would eventually reach us or start here.

One problem is that policymakers do what they are influenced to do. If there is no profit in preparing for pandemic, there is no priority. It is easy to blame "policymakers" and government officials, but we elect the idiots and keep them in office, and our system is based entirely on influence peddling by those with the largest pursestrings.
 
One problem is that policymakers do what they are influenced to do. If there is no profit in preparing for pandemic, there is no priority. It is easy to blame "policymakers" and government officials, but we elect the idiots and keep them in office, and our system is based entirely on influence peddling by those with the largest pursestrings.

Yes. That's why I said I am howling at the moon. As @mtnbikej stated above, people place so much more emphasis on disaster recovery than disaster preparedness. Even now, ebola continues to rage in sub-Saharan Africa, but because it doesn't impact us in the US, development of a vaccine is low priority. If you think SARS is bad, wait until hemorrhagic fever breaks out in a major way. All we are waiting for is for the virus to complete one more mutation... because we aren't taking the risk seriously and we continue to let it bounce around in the human population, uncured.

But you can say the same thing about natural disasters. A big earthquake is coming. It is 100% guaranteed. How prepared are Californians? It is obvious from the panicked reaction to this crisis that almost NO ONE in the state is prepared at even the most basic level.

When you look to the East Coast, it took several huge hurricanes before people finally got their act together. At least now when the government says "big hurricane coming" people scoot out of the way, and they have plans of where to go and what to do. Let us hope that when the next virus pops up in China (or wherever) that people will respond more quickly and effectively. If you look at the numbers, if this pandemic gets more people to get annual flu shots, it will save 10,000's of lives every year.
 
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I am watching the news and it would appear that a great many people are not practicing social distancing when they are out and about. The mayor stated that fines may have to be issued for those not following the order. They showed public places like the local beaches and a pier that were slammed with people. The order given is to stay home yet we are free to go out and stay active for health purposes as long as we practice social distancing. But the pics shown on the news look like people are taking the time off from work as a vacation. Not good. This is not going to help slow the spread.

I rode solo yesterday and it was a shitshow ... large groups of hikers mostly. I did not encounter any large groups of riders, but there were many groups of 2 & 3 riding right next to each other. The best were the families with small children ... at least 4 of the kids throughout my ride basically sprinted right across the trail right in front of me while playing. Can't blame them, they were doing what kids do, but parents need to do a better job of keeping the kids in the family group rather than letting them run wild.

I also ran into many instances of coming up behind another rider on singletrack sections with no way around. I just basically dropped back about 10 feet until I saw an opening and then sprinted past. I would think a rider in front breathing heavily and expelling germs into the air makes 10 ft essentially worthless though. I passed so many people yesterday within 1-2 feet that my social distancing strategy turned out to be completely useless. I was closer to more people on that ride than the number of people I encountered the rest of the week combined.

Today I am going well out of my way to ride somewhere where I know I can maintain distance, which is definitely not in Orange County.
 
I think I just heard on the news that the LACO mayor has now banned all public gatherings/meetings. You must be alone when out in public and obviously, only go out if it is crucial. WOW!!! :eek:
 
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Just heard that NY has over 15K confirmed cases now. I am not surprised. That city has everyone crammed together so it must have been spreading for weeks before any orders were made. At least here in the Southland, we are living in a spread out fashion. My friends who are keeping a close eye on things informed me this morning that the cities surrounding my immediate community all have a few confirmed cases each now.
 
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