Is something Burning in OC

kioti said:
I find this forecast disturbing though, especially concerning Joplin and Chiquito/San Juan trails, considering the amount of damage/loss already incurred--
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I’m no firefighting expert but *maybe/hopefully” one of the good things about San Juan is they have a dedicated roadway to “make a stand”. It seems that usually helps but then again, there’s no other way out to that may be considered a “trap” of sorts?
 
Yesterday saw a huge plume of smoke looking up from RSM.
today no plume, just a low haze over the mountains. It looks like they are getting a handle on it, or it running out if fuel . Hopefully both.

Photo from RSM apx 2om Saturday . Notice have some blue sky!
IMG_20180811_144130614.jpg
 
mtbMike said:
I’m no firefighting expert but *maybe/hopefully” one of the good things about San Juan is they have a dedicated roadway to “make a stand”. It seems that usually helps but then again, there’s no other way out to that may be considered a “trap” of sorts?
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Good point. I'm no a firefighting expert either, but I'd do everything possible to avoid having to fight a fire in the narrows of Ortega Highway above the bridge or from the base of San Juan/Los Pinos trails.

Worth considering, based on how this fire's being fought, is that there are homes and businesses along Ortega Highway, as well as Blue Jay and Upper San Juan campground, the Lazy W Ranch (in Hot Springs Canyon), and the San Mateo Wilderness and more homes on the east side of Ortega on South Main Divide. Los Pinos, San Juan and Chiquito trails maybe be collaterally protected due to proximity.

I'd also hope, once homes on the Elsinore side are safe, a massive perimeter would be established to protect against fire re-activation and migration under shifting winds.. though I'm not sure that's even possible.
 
Joanne Hubble wrote:


Good Morning Everyone,

Here is the latest on the fire:

Acres: 22,714
Containment: 41%
Fire Started: August 6, 2018
Cause: Human Caused

Resources:
Engines: 160 Helicopters: 14 Fixed Wing: 14 Dozers: 27 Water Tenders: 16 Crews: 32 Total Personnel: 1509
Holy Fire Morning Update
August 12, 2018, 0800

Trabuco Canyon, Calif., August 12, 2018 – The fire is currently estimated at 22,714 acres with 41% containment. Containment lines continue to be constructed and strengthened around the fire perimeter utilizing both air and ground resources.Smoke and flames will continue to be seen from the I-15 corridor, Trilogy, and surrounding communities. Firefighters, dozers and aircraft are working the area south from Coldwater Canyon to Glen Ivy in an effort to secure the area.

Steep terrain, dry fuels, and inaccessible areas continue to be a factor in fire spread. A changing weather pattern today will bring slight cooling into the low 90’s with southwest winds 8-12 mph gusting up to 20 mph. Suppression efforts are focused on community defense, and limiting the spread north towards Coldwater Canyon and south towards Hwy 74 into the El Cariso Village area.

The damage assessment team has completed a partial assessment and determined 14 structures destroyed and 6 damaged. Structure assessments continue in the affected areas.

Please note the new information number for the Riverside Joint Information Center:
(951)955-1393

ROAD CLOSURES:

Highway 74 remains closed in both directions. Glen Eden Road is closed at DePalma Road.

MANDATORY EVACUATIONS REMAIN FOR:

Holy Jim, Trabuco Canyon recreation residence tracts, Blue Jay and Falcon Campgrounds, El Cariso Village, Rancho Capistrano, and Glen Eden Canyon.

EVACUATIONS LIFTED:

Horsethief, Machado, Shoreline, Sycamore Creek, McVicker and Rice areas with Mountain Street and Avocado Way closed at the pavement in Lake Elsinore ONLY.

Evacuation centers:
Riverside: Temescal Canyon High School, 28755 El Toro Rd Lake Elsinore CA 92532 for residents.

Contact: Fire Information (714) 628-7085 and for Riverside County (951)955-1393
Media should use the Holy Fire Joint Information Center Line: (657) 345-4277.
 
From J. Hubble:


Good Evening Everyone,

Effective Sunday, August 12, 2018, mandatory evacuations have been lifted for the Lake Elsinore community of Riverside.

Mandatory evacuations remain in effect for Glen Eden, El Cariso, Blue Jay and Rancho Capistrano.

Highway 74 (Ortega Highway) is closed at Grand Ave. on the east side, and Nichols Institute on the west side.

Planned Actions:

Decreased extreme fire behavior will allow fire crews to make an aggressive direct attack on the fire. Structure defense will continue in areas threatened. Mop up will be ongoing as fire crews continue to bring this fire under control.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Total Personnel :1,337
Size2 :2,714 Acres
Percent of Perimeter Contained: 52%
Estimated Containment Date: Friday August 17th, 2018 approx. 12:00 AM

Projected Incident Activity:
Fire will continue to burn actively in the Bixby and Coldwater Drainages spreading to the North East. Fire is progressing down Bell Canyon.

Weather Concerns:
Areas of smoke and haze but otherwise clear and slightly cooler. Low pressure moving into the Pacific Northwest will bring cooler temperatures though Monday. Temperatures will range from 67-72 degrees in the evening with a relative humidity of 60-70%. 8-12mph southwest winds with gusts up to 20mph on ridges.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Please use caution when re-entering your neighborhoods. Heavy equipment and firefighters are working in the area. Please stay out of the burned areas. Residents should stay alert and be prepared for changing conditions. For further information on fire preparedness visit WildlandfireRSG.org
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Fire Information Lines: (714) 628-7085 or (714) 573-6210

Here is a link to the USFS information page: inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/6106/

S.gif
 
Final update (hopefully) from J. Hubble:

***********

Unless there are major changes to this fire it will be the last update from me.

Here is the latest update from the US Forest Service:

Fire Information Line: (714) 628-7085
inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/6106/


Effective Monday, August 13, 2018, mandatory evacuations have been lifted for the Glen Eden community.

Mandatory evacuations remain in effect for El Cariso, Blue Jay and Rancho Capistrano.

Highway 74 (Ortega Hwy) is closed at Grand Ave. on the east side and Nichols Institute on the west side.

Please use caution when re-entering your neighborhoods. Heavy equipment and firefighters are working in the area. Please stay out of the burned areas. Residents should stay alert and be prepared for changing conditions. For more information on fire preparedness, visit WildlandfireRSG.org


Planned Actions:

Structural defense continues in areas threatened by fire. Hand crews with the assistance of dozers will continue to build fire line to the north and east from the point of origin.


Projected Incident Activity:

Islands of unburned fuel will continue to burn in the North foothills. Air support will continue to assist fire crews in the Bell Canyon area.


Remarks:

Gusty afternoon southwest winds of 8-12 mph and gusts up to 20 mph are possible. Temperatures will range from 88-92 degrees with a relative humidity of 30-35%.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Total Personnel :1,450
Size: 22,714 Acres
Percent of Perimeter Contained: 52%
Estimated Containment Date: Friday August 17th, 2018 approx. 12:00 AM


Weather Concerns:

Areas of smoke and haze but otherwise clear and slightly cooler. Low pressure moving into the Pacific Northwest will bring cooler temperatures though Monday. Temperatures will range from 67-72 degrees in the evening with a relative humidity of 60-70%. 8-12mph southwest winds with gusts up to 20mph on ridges.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Please use caution when re-entering your neighborhoods. Heavy equipment and firefighters are working in the area. Please stay out of the burned areas. Residents should stay alert and be prepared for changing conditions. For further information on fire preparedness visit WildlandfireRSG.org
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Fire Information Lines: (714) 628-7085 or (714) 573-6210

Here is a link to the USFS information page: inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/6106/

***********

Note that the Trabuco Creek Rd forest entrance and the Holy Jim/Trabuco areas (crime scene) are closed to all the public. Cabin owners who lost their dwellings are still waiting for the go-ahead to enter the canyon to retrieve whatever belongings they can find. Thanks to all for patience in allowing this area to open back up when official biz is finished.
 
A disturbing bit from the HJVFD chief:

I met with OCFA Investigators, the Sheriff Investigators and the DA prosecuting the case an hour ago. They came to get a general look at the area, the locations of the houses, etc. so the investigative reports have a reference. I also called the FS Dispatch and the Corona office to let them know I had turned back three mountain bikers who had entered the area by going up Rose Canyon and dropping down at “Jeep Hill.”

I requested that they move their closure to the FS gate to prevent further access by these people (two had empty backpacks).


I only hope these were not really "mountain bikers," but merely scumbag looters who used bikes to access the scene.
 
mike said:
A disturbing bit from the HJVFD chief:

I met with OCFA Investigators, the Sheriff Investigators and the DA prosecuting the case an hour ago. They came to get a general look at the area, the locations of the houses, etc. so the investigative reports have a reference. I also called the FS Dispatch and the Corona office to let them know I had turned back three mountain bikers who had entered the area by going up Rose Canyon and dropping down at “Jeep Hill.”

I requested that they move their closure to the FS gate to prevent further access by these people (two had empty backpacks).


I only hope these were not really "mountain bikers," but merely scumbag looters who used bikes to access the scene.
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That's crazy...

Did they climb Lower Joplin and then down Cadillac? That's not a route you'd do for a ride... Sounds nefarious.
 
mike said:
A disturbing bit from the HJVFD chief:

I met with OCFA Investigators, the Sheriff Investigators and the DA prosecuting the case an hour ago. They came to get a general look at the area, the locations of the houses, etc. so the investigative reports have a reference. I also called the FS Dispatch and the Corona office to let them know I had turned back three mountain bikers who had entered the area by going up Rose Canyon and dropping down at “Jeep Hill.”

I requested that they move their closure to the FS gate to prevent further access by these people (two had empty backpacks).


I only hope these were not really "mountain bikers," but merely scumbag looters who used bikes to access the scene.
Click to expand...
Faust29 said:
That's crazy...

Did they climb Lower Joplin and then down Cadillac? That's not a route you'd do for a ride... Sounds nefarious.
Click to expand...


Another reason to decommission Cadillac.

Yep, sounds like peeps up to no good.
 
mike said:
A disturbing bit from the HJVFD chief:

I met with OCFA Investigators, the Sheriff Investigators and the DA prosecuting the case an hour ago. They came to get a general look at the area, the locations of the houses, etc. so the investigative reports have a reference. I also called the FS Dispatch and the Corona office to let them know I had turned back three mountain bikers who had entered the area by going up Rose Canyon and dropping down at “Jeep Hill.”

I requested that they move their closure to the FS gate to prevent further access by these people (two had empty backpacks).


I only hope these were not really "mountain bikers," but merely scumbag looters who used bikes to access the scene.
Click to expand...

In general, there are passive and active closures. The last time I drove by Trabuco Creek Road there was a Sheriff parked on the dirt. That'd be active. Later, there will be a sign on the Forest Service gate saying residents only, or no access beyond this point, or something in between. I'm guessing that's what'll occur when the crime scene investigation and fire clean-up are complete. Passive closures are relatively effective and rely mostly on self-regulation. An in-between measure would be private security to watch the properties in the canyon, if that's a concern.

Hopefully, making Cadillac inaccessible to vehicles wouldn't close it to hikers and mountain bikers. The thought in the past was that it could continue to be open for non-motorized use--subject to the discretion of the property owner. But if it has to be closed to everyone in order to keep vehicles out, maybe that's for the best.

At the same time, I'd like to see access at the bottom of Lower Joplin re-instated, either at the current exit or the previous one near the Joplin Youth Center. Too good a trail to be off-limits. I'd also like to see the residents of Rose Canyon have access to the dirt road behind the (now) locked gate, for equestrian and local use.
 
Just got this from Warriors Society:

Fire Update

The burned areas will be closed until the Forest Service BAER Team (Burn Area Evaluation Response) has a chance to evaluate the area for risks to the public. The reason why we had a two year forest closure after the Silverado fire was because of an unstable ridge that they feared would collapse. We are hopeful that there will be no issues such as this. The Forest Service my close access to vehicles (only permitted uses) for a substantial period of time to prevent off-roading in the areas burned since there is no vegetation preventing their access.

We will keep you updated as to when the public will be allowed in and if the fire will have any effect on the 2019 Vision Quest and Counting Coup.

Many thanks the the pilots and firefighters who stopped major damage to the various communities affected by the fire.

Below is an update on the Holy Jim/Trabuco Canyon burned area from Mike Milligan, who has the cabin at the entrance to the Holy Jim Trail. It is followed by a list of trails/road affected by the fire.

I’m so sorry for the loss of the 12 homes in Trabuco. It is a devastating loss that I simply can’t accept, despite the reality. I was there at the beginning and I know there was no chance to save any home that burned. The group of five at the Trabuco/Horsethief gate were the target of the first response, but this fire wasn’t common - - it was simply too hot and too well developed for the trucks to get close. Then, when all were moving back to regroup, Franks house began burning. I went to the helipad to see which way the winds were pushing it, and to see where it was cresting the ridge between Trabuco and Holy Jim, planning to meet it as it moved down the hill behind the Holy Jim cabins. By then, about a half hour after the first call, it had run from the starting point to Ann’s, whose house is almost directly across the ridge from mine.

As I brought the truck to the gate and hooked up a hose from Leslee’s tank to keep the truck filled, the flames began to edge down the ridge line. At that point, three helicopters began running the ridge and holding the fire back. The flames were still 30 to 40feet high, but with the incessant water drops they had nowhere to go. The remainder of the afternoon and into the evening all units worked from the helipad gate to Isaac’s, but still couldn’t get to the cabins from the Shumate’s on. The fire held to the burn area overnight, but ran to the Main Divide where the suppression continued.

By Tuesday the fire was developing on the eastern side, but a southerly wind blew it into the upper drainage of Holy Jim. When that happened, the helicopters came back and broke the progress over a 6 hour period. The same pattern developed Wednesday and Thursday afternoons about 1 pm, and the helitack continued. Thursday night was the most problematic because the front line of the flames got to about 500-600 yards above the Holy Jim gate. When that happened the Hotshots from Big Bear and San Bernardino went up Holy Jim and worked with the water drops to build a lasting fire break, one which did hold and was expanded Friday in the morning hours.

I met with OCFA Investigators, the Sheriff Investigators and the DA prosecuting the case an hour ago. They came to get a general look at the area, the locations of the houses, etc. so the investigative reports have a reference. I also called the FS Dispatch and the Corona office to let them know I had turned back three mountain bikers who had entered the area by going up Rose Canyon and dropping down at “Jeep Hill.”
I requested that they move their closure to the FS gate to prevent further access by these people (two had empty backpacks).

The D.A. Asked me to pass on his intent to prosecute this case to the fullest extent, meaning there is no thought of suggesting a reduced sentence with a guilty plea from the defendant. He is firm on his plan to ask for life imprisonment when he receives a guilty verdict. There is no specific information on the evidence they have, but all of the investigators are confident that what they have is solid. The one thing all requested is that we have patience. This process will take as much as two years, but at no point will they lessen their resolve to obtain a guilty verdict.

The cleanup, I believe, will be handled by the State because of the disaster declaration. Whether it it a complete cleanup to include all debris will probably be clarified as we go, but they are concerned about toxic materials like gas for generators, kerosene, propane tanks, etc.

I will remain here as long as I can and keep watch on the cabins that remain. If you have specific questions, email me, but remember that the cell sites were damaged, so I have to travel down to the RC airport to respond through RSM cell sites.

Mike Milligan


A list of areas burned

East and West Horse Thief

Trabuco

Cold Water

Indian Truck Trail

Upper Section of Los Pinos

All of the Yeager Mesa Trail

The upper part of the Bell Ridge Trail

Upper Holy Jim

Most of the Main Divide from Ortega to Santiago Peak

Very close to 4 corners

Most of El Cariso

For a map of the area burned go to:

http://google.org/crisismap/google....MAP&layers=11,6,3,15,1,2,5,10,7,4,13,16,17,18
 
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