Is the bike industry in trouble?

My friend was at SO this weekend; it was really crowded since many other parks were still closed (and because it's become very popular). He said that ebikes proliferated to the extent that they're going to be difficult to restrict. Meanwhile I took one on a nice 20 mile road ride yesterday, all legal and fun since I was alone and chilling from a more arduous weekend.
I’ve been reading about the explosion in turnstile-jumping on NYC subways. Casual lawlessness is corrosive.

I figure once a couple kids die on camera riding e-bikes on the beach path we might see some change. Then again maybe not.

I rode Oaks on Saturday. And reminded myself why I don’t ride there anymore. Pedaling is over there. Ding! Move over slow loser, I’m coming through.
 
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Real bikes will never die.

For one, battery powered bikes are expensive. Just like how the Trek Marlin is still popular, so to will nicer bikes. Maybe fewer, but not so few that they are hard to get.

Two: plenty of people do, and will, want to ride human powered only. Just like plenty of people still run for recreation. Running will never go away, neither will real bikes.

Eventually that market will saturate. Not any time soon, sadly, but it will. We will continue seeing more commuter eBikes (which I welcome) for a much longer time.

Anyway, specialized I believe is having a year end clearance of bikes right now. I'll wait to see if they go lower, I'd love to buy a carbon Stumpy Evo for my GF.
I rode past a middle school yesterday when the kids were leaving for the day and many were riding away on their ebikes using throttle only. It seems as though some may keep gravitating to them and never realize the fun that a bike can provide. I agree with you though that bikes will never go away (probably not "e's" either); to me, the bicycle is the greatest invention ever. Also, I have no problem calling a bike a bike and an ebike an ebike.
 
Throttle eBikes are cheaper than cars. Cheaper to buy a middle schooler an eBike for $1000 than it is to save up for a car a few years later that they don't want anyway.

"Kids these days" don't want cars anyway. My GF's teenagers are putting between 0 and 5% effort into driving. The oldest of the two is 17, talks like he is interested in cars, but has put zero effort into getting his license. The younger is 15 and is taking his written test this morning and had at least been saving money, but also studied zero for the test (he admitted last night).

So, commuter eBikes will just become more common. Less cars on the road is fine with me. Teenagers in the bike lane are better than soccer moms cell phone piloting their giant SUVs to take their teenagers places.

(I created the term "Cellpilot" recently. It's like autopilot, except you are using your peripheral to do the driving while you stare at the screen. You brake when you see brake lights, you go when the brake lights turn off, without looking. Everyone drives an automatic now, so brake lights communicate what you are doing unintentionally)
 
I’ve been reading about the explosion in turnstile-jumping on NYC subways. Casual lawlessness is corrosive.
I've been guilty of this a couple of times on the metro. Sometimes you forget your card or, forget to reload the card. I got popped for it pretty well too, once. $60 ticket from a transit cop. Lesson learned. What kind of a grown man jumps a turnstile to avoid paying $2?
 
What's the metro?
Not sure if you're goofing or not. It's LAs version of the subway.

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Throttle eBikes are cheaper than cars. Cheaper to buy a middle schooler an eBike for $1000 than it is to save up for a car a few years later that they don't want anyway.

"Kids these days" don't want cars anyway. My GF's teenagers are putting between 0 and 5% effort into driving. The oldest of the two is 17, talks like he is interested in cars, but has put zero effort into getting his license. The younger is 15 and is taking his written test this morning and had at least been saving money, but also studied zero for the test (he admitted last night).

So, commuter eBikes will just become more common. Less cars on the road is fine with me. Teenagers in the bike lane are better than soccer moms cell phone piloting their giant SUVs to take their teenagers places.
The masses always seem to gravitate to what is easier. So its not surprising that kids who have never biked before will choose the motorized option.

I'd much rather see them on e-bikes than in cars though. And if its true that many are not bothering to get drivers licenses, that gives hope that car culture is dying and public transit may become more relevant in the future. Unless of course uber and driverless cars surplant the use of private vehicles to the point people still won't take public transit.
 
Public transit in So Cal is practically useless. Years ago checked a couple times about taking the bus to work. Was well over two hours to go 15 miles. WTF? Can drive there in 20 min.
And in all seriousness, if you've ever taken public transit a few times you'll aviod it too.
I like my car, I enjoy driving, be it in solitude or with friends, go when and where I want. Stop for groceries or take out on the way home, and no waiting!

Ain't giving up the car, and have no intention of getting on a bus with all of the very best of humanity.
 
Using public transit in Beijing China was magnitudes easier than using it in LA... trekked around on it for several years while living over there. Here it is a mess.
I couldn't figure out a bus schedule to save my life. I've ridden the bus one time in LA and it took 2.5 hrs. to get from WeHo to Echo Park.

But, the metro trains are a breeze and run about every 12 minutes. I take the gold line from South Pas. to the Red line at Union Station, exit 7th & Figuroa and walk a block to my office. Takes about 30 minutes.

Back on track with the thread though; I've been watching a lot of youtubes videos about how the bike industry is in peril. But, it just seems like a correction, same as shipping and the markets. Hopefully, it helps bring down bike prices-even for a little bit.
To kind of quote The Office, "F@ck 'em, they've had their limo ride."
 
Not sure if you're goofing or not. It's LAs version of the subway.

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Yep, just joshin.' I know what it is, but I don't go to Los Angeles (or New York) so I don't use it. Wouldn't anyway. Takes too long and the aromatic fellow travelers with their unique universes just don't do it for me.

And besides, none of that metro/bus/mass transit stuff goes anywhere near where I'm going.
 
Public transit in So Cal is practically useless. Years ago checked a couple times about taking the bus to work. Was well over two hours to go 15 miles. WTF? Can drive there in 20 min.
And in all seriousness, if you've ever taken public transit a few times you'll aviod it too.
I like my car, I enjoy driving, be it in solitude or with friends, go when and where I want. Stop for groceries or take out on the way home, and no waiting!

Ain't giving up the car, and have no intention of getting on a bus with all of the very best of humanity.
Truth.

When my wife and I lived in Belmont Heights in Long Beach (4th & Redondo) she was always wanting to take the Blue Line to a LA Kings game. Mind you, we have the FastTrak Responder, and it would take us 30-35 minutes to get to our $10 parking lot near Staples from Long Beach via the 405 > 110 > Adams > Fig.

In order to take the Blue Line, we would have to take a bus to the downtown LB station, who knows how long that would be waiting for the bus, and then the Blue Line takes approximately an hour to get to Staples (Pico station) from downtown LB. Aaaand I think round trip for the two of us on the Blue Line was around $20? Not even sure how much the LB Transit costs these days. So taking in time and cost of public transit, it was just a flat out joke to even think about taking it. Not to mention, the Blue Line goes through the absolute worst neighborhoods between LB and downtown LA.
 
Public transit in So Cal is practically useless. Years ago checked a couple times about taking the bus to work. Was well over two hours to go 15 miles. WTF? Can drive there in 20 min.
And in all seriousness, if you've ever taken public transit a few times you'll aviod it too.
I like my car, I enjoy driving, be it in solitude or with friends, go when and where I want. Stop for groceries or take out on the way home, and no waiting!

Ain't giving up the car, and have no intention of getting on a bus with all of the very best of humanity.
On the contrary, I thoroughly enjoy trips on the Metro Line. Weve taken it to Downtown Los Angeles. Dang thing is quick and powerful. The homeless freaks just add a little seasoning to the experience.
 
I acoustically got to my pantry then used an analog can opener to get to the beans I had for lunch today.

Now I am using my manual toilet that has an e-bidet attached to it. BTW, if you’re not using a bidet you should. Way better advice than “if you are riding a colonial bike you need to get on an electronics revolution rig asap.”
 
Public transit in So Cal is practically useless. Years ago checked a couple times about taking the bus to work. Was well over two hours to go 15 miles. WTF? Can drive there in 20 min.
And in all seriousness, if you've ever taken public transit a few times you'll aviod it too.
I like my car, I enjoy driving, be it in solitude or with friends, go when and where I want. Stop for groceries or take out on the way home, and no waiting!

Ain't giving up the car, and have no intention of getting on a bus with all of the very best of humanity.

While I don’t, nor will I ever, have experience on public transit here. It was a good hour and often more on the T in Boston to go 5 miles from my school to my last house I lived in. So 2 hours for 15 miles isn’t as bad as it seems.
 
While I don’t, nor will I ever, have experience on public transit here. It was a good hour and often more on the T in Boston to go 5 miles from my school to my last house I lived in. So 2 hours for 15 miles isn’t as bad as it seems.
Boston public transit is better than that!! I believe if you build it they will come and use it!! Car lobby has been here for sooooo long:(
 
Yep, just joshin.' I know what it is, but I don't go to Los Angeles (or New York) so I don't use it. Wouldn't anyway. Takes too long and the aromatic fellow travelers with their unique universes just don't do it for me.

And besides, none of that metro/bus/mass transit stuff goes anywhere near where I'm going.
During this past winter break, we did nothing but subways and walking in London, Munich and Paris. A couple of cab rides. No problems. Very easy.

And there were more (pedal) bikes in Paris and Salzburg Austria than London and Munich. As I mentioned elsewhere, I would not ride a bike in London.
 
I lived in Vancouver for 10 years. The public transit system there is awesome - quick and convenient to most areas of the city, and it is easy to transfer between bus/train/ferry as needed. A single fare gets you as many transfers as you need for 90min, so sometimes you can ride to your destination and back on a single fare. The majority of people there could easily live without owning a car, and many do. For someone who likes to travel a lot or go to more remote areas without transit service you'd need a vehicle. But transit is used very heavily - so heavily, they are continuously adding more buses and building new train lines.

I've used San Diego transit a fair amount. Even at peak times buses on many routes only come every 15 or 30mins. Trolleys and Coaster trains aren't very frequent either. So if you have to transfer one or more times it can take forever to get anywhere, and that assumes your start and destination are near transit routes. It just isn't convenient for a lot of people. As others did, I've looked up what it would take to get from home to work. I think it was around 2hrs for one commute and 1:45 for another, both including a mile or so walking and 2-3 transfers. Also annoying - a cash fare is one way only, no transfers allowed. Only recently has new payment option been offered that gets you two hours travel that includes transfers between bus/trolley, and in any direction. But you still can't transfer to the Coaster unless you buy a Coaster day pass for $12 or 15. That's more than it costs me in gas to get to work and back, and takes 6-7 times longer. I could cut some time off by biking to a Coaster station and take that most of the way. But even that total trip takes about the same time as just biking the whole way to work - which I can do for free.

Politicians and transit planners here don't get it. They complain about low ridership but can't seem to grasp how much the system sucks and why that might contribute to low ridership. It'll never be as good as cities with good transit but they could make it a lot better than it is. It would take a lot of investment though, which is a big problem. Rather than drop $2B on a trolley extension for example, they could have bought 3,500 diesel buses or 2,500 electric (assume $550k/$800k each). They could service a ton of new routes with those buses rather than a single trolley route - and with buses they have the flexibility to modify routes as needed. If they want people to start using transit in large numbers they have to make the cost and convenience a better combination than getting in your car every day to drive to work. They'd never be able to make it work for everyone here but they could make it work for a lot of people.
 
I have only used Metro (or whatever it is) a few times when it was convenient. Combined with a bicycle, trains are pretty good. But in reality, unless the whole mass transit system is massively improved, we aren't going carless. Less cars maybe, but not carless. And the politicians know that severely reducing mobility will destroy the economy, so they are going to scream one thing (less cars!) while do another (nothing), like politicians do.

I did just buy a new, gas powered vehicle, that I intend to keep for a very long time. I am pretty invested in the belief that things aren't changing drastically for a while.


I've used San Diego transit a fair amount.
I lived all around SD for many years, and used various transit a lot because I was broke (long story), also how I got into bike commuting.

For a while I was riding from Spring Valley to MCRD, which was mostly downhill and that was fine. Then I would ride into downtown, hop the trolley to Spring Valley, and ride the rest. Guessing it was 5 miles of riding home total (pre Strava :Roflmao). They let the USCG ride for free.

In another place I was riding 32 miles in the morning to work (Vista to Clairemont Mesa), because I started work at 5 am and the trains didn't run that early. Then after work I rode about 10 miles to a train station, then rode the bike from Carlsbad to Vista, about an 18 mile trip. I skipped the fare a lot then too (I was broke commuting on a bike I bought for $40). That commute really got me into shape. Luckily SD weather is super mild!

The rest of the time I was commuting by motorcycle, or mostly working for a contractor and driving their work truck.

they could have bought 3,500 diesel buses or 2,500 electric
Buses are cheap, drivers are expensive.
 
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