Market crash?

BonsaiNut

BonsaiNut

iMTB Rockstah
I don't know if any of you watch the bond markets, but they were flashing huge warning signs yesterday. Stock futures today are off more than 1.5% before the market open. Goldman just cut their year-end forecast for the S&P 500 by 15%...

Today is shaping up to be a bloodbath. Please tell me none of you are still long equities.
 
Ignoring my 401k. Not going to be touching that for 20 years anyway. Everything else I pulled out a couple months ago, not on a high but higher than now.

Reminds me of why I like the backup of having a pension plan. I really don't want to market to dictate if, or when, I can retire. Of if I suddenly have to return to work because all my money vanished. Trying to remind my coworkers how important that is.
 
Sidewalk said:
Ignoring my 401k. Not going to be touching that for 20 years anyway. Everything else I pulled out a couple months ago, not on a high but higher than now.

Reminds me of why I like the backup of having a pension plan. I really don't want to market to dictate if, or when, I can retire. Of if I suddenly have to return to work because all my money vanished. Trying to remind my coworkers how important that is.
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Good for you
 
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I'm with @Sidewalk. I feel so fortunate to have a job with a pension. I have a 401k that I've been contributing to for decades and have no idea where it's at. Had to give the ex $100k of it in our divorce 10 years ago. I guess I should find out. I also have UPS stock that usually holds steady but I see that even it's being affected by the latest drop.
 
Don't have much in stocks, but put a few thousand in stocks 2008, then a few more in 2020. Could be cut by half and still be up over 2x.
If it takes a crap, then instead of a new bike I'll buy in a little more.

It's a rigged game anyways, so I no longer panic when it goes down, or excited when it goes up. The only time it really matters IMO is when you cash out and lock in profit or loss. Just my opinion.
 
trading-places.jpg
 
evdog said:
Thread will turn political in 5, 4, 3, ...........
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I was going to go on a deep dive into bond prices... but I'm a math geek. Money doesn't have a political party.

That said, if the Fed does what they say they are going to do (at least what they said on Wednesday), expect 30 year fixed mortgage rates north of 8.0% in December. It is not guessing or gambling... it is a mathematical certainty. The only thing that will halt the inevitability is if monthly CPI data comes in really soft. But I don't get the sense that it will. And I also think that the Fed, now that its fingers have been burned by the markets, is not going to do a head fake and slow or stop rate increases - at least until January. So hang on boys and girls...

Also... buy yourself some I-Bonds. You buy them directly from the US Treasury, they are indexed to inflation, and they are currently yielding 9.62%, risk free cash. Better yet, for a high tax state like California, you don't pay state tax on the income, and if you are really aggressive, you can accrue the returns while defering Federal Taxes on the gains for up to 30 years. And as we all know from our Finance classes, an investment that compounds at a rate of 9.62% per year will double in value every 7.3 years :)

There, now you all owe me a beer :)
 
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BonsaiNut said:
I was going to go on a deep dive into bond prices... but I'm a math geek. Money doesn't have a political party.

That said, if the Fed does what they say they are going to do (at least what they said on Wednesday), expect 30 year fixed mortgage rates north of 8.0% in December. It is not guessing or gambling... it is a mathematical certainty. The only thing that will halt the inevitability is if monthly CPI data comes in really soft. But I don't get the sense that it will. And I also think that the Fed, now that its fingers have been burned by the markets, is not going to do a head fake and slow or stop rate increases - at least until January. So hang on boys and girls...

Also... buy yourself some I-Bonds. You buy them directly from the US Treasury, they are indexed to inflation, and they are currently yielding 9.62%, risk free cash. Better yet, for a high tax state like California, you don't pay state tax on the income, and if you are really aggressive, you can accrue the returns while defering Federal Taxes on the gains for up to 30 years. And as we all know from our Finance classes, an investment that compounds at a rate of 9.62% per year will double in value every 7.3 years :)

There, now you all owe me a beer :)
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What type of beer should I send? And can I send myself, my fishing gear, and my bike/gear with it? :D
 
Ok well if people want to visit... that's a freebie :) But first we have to finish building our house :)

And no, I am absolutely not kidding. If anyone on this site wants to come visit, send me a PM. We'll probably have guest quarters in the 2nd half of next year. And we live 1.8 miles from 30 miles of flowy single track :)

house1.jpg
 
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Keynesian economics, and you were expecting a different result? Fiat currency is the best tax as nobody votes for it so leaders do not get blamed
 
Today’s sell off was actually ignited by the naive trickledown budget of the new UK PM. Massive unfunded tax cuts. Tax cuts do not pay for themselves. They never do. Market punished them and 5yr gilts are now close to 4pc and sterling is nearing parity with dollar. They should have stuck to helping the people with higher energy bills, and fund it with higher taxes on those who can afford it, but have those higher taxes with an expiration.

On that note, indeed those I bonds are a good option
 
BonsaiNut said:
Ok well if people want to visit... that's a freebie :) But first we have to finish building our house :)

And no, I am absolutely not kidding. If anyone on this site wants to come visit, send me a PM. We'll probably have guest quarters in the 2nd half of next year. And we live 1.8 miles from 30 miles of flowy single track :)

View attachment 84586
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Good God, I can simply walk across the grass and start casting? :inlove:
 
SnakeCharmer said:
Good God, I can simply walk across the grass and start casting? :inlove:
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Yup. 16' of water at the dock. The center of the channel is 55'. We are about a half mile off the main channel which is 75+.

Our framers asked if it was ok if they fished off the dock when they weren't working. I said "sure we aren't using it". Now every day I go over there at lunch and they are all out fishing :)
 
da big hills said:
why the wall inside of a wall?
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The outer wall sits on top of a stepped down concrete foundation wall that is 6" thick. It sits on the outer edge. The inner wall is an interior bathroom wall built out from the concrete. Think of it as if you were framing a room in a basement. Those are 12' high walls so it looks a little funky. Once we get our floor system in, the finished ceiling height will be 11' in the center of the rooms with a soffit around some of the interior spaces that will be 10'. The doors and sliders are all 8'.
 
The market can do what the market does best. I had my 457(b) 100% in an index equity fund for over 20 years. It was very good to me. :thumbsup: I got mostly out of it last year in prep for retirement (shifted the vast majority to a money market fund).

A few years ago I bought 4 years of military time (a mechanism whereby a CalPERS member can add to their years of service, by purchasing retirement years at the then-actuarial rate, to add to the years of service credited toward retirement. Not air time.) I have a CalPERS pension; a pension from McDonnell-Douglas (beer money, really) that I started taking at 55; Social Security when I turn 62 (end of next year); and my 457(b).

But just fer squirts & giggles I left a chunk in the 457(b) index equity fund mirrored to the S&P 500. We'll see where it is in a few years. This is my play money, that I will never need to touch to survive.

At the moment it has tanked. Whatever!!! :laugh:
 
BonsaiNut said:
I was going to go on a deep dive into bond prices... but I'm a math geek. Money doesn't have a political party.

That said, if the Fed does what they say they are going to do (at least what they said on Wednesday), expect 30 year fixed mortgage rates north of 8.0% in December. It is not guessing or gambling... it is a mathematical certainty. The only thing that will halt the inevitability is if monthly CPI data comes in really soft. But I don't get the sense that it will. And I also think that the Fed, now that its fingers have been burned by the markets, is not going to do a head fake and slow or stop rate increases - at least until January. So hang on boys and girls...

Also... buy yourself some I-Bonds. You buy them directly from the US Treasury, they are indexed to inflation, and they are currently yielding 9.62%, risk free cash. Better yet, for a high tax state like California, you don't pay state tax on the income, and if you are really aggressive, you can accrue the returns while defering Federal Taxes on the gains for up to 30 years. And as we all know from our Finance classes, an investment that compounds at a rate of 9.62% per year will double in value every 7.3 years :)

There, now you all owe me a beer :)
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My 401(k) has tanked, like everything else. I'm 10-15 years from retiring, it can ride on. At least I'm buying cheaper right now.

Now pension, just that and SSI.

Low stock prices are why I haven't got a shell for my new truck yet.

I am pretty tapped out, but got a short explanation of delaying the Fed tax on those bonds?
 
BonsaiNut said:
Also... buy yourself some I-Bonds. You buy them directly from the US Treasury, they are indexed to inflation, and they are currently yielding 9.62%, risk free cash. Better yet, for a high tax state like California, you don't pay state tax on the income, and if you are really aggressive, you can accrue the returns while defering Federal Taxes on the gains for up to 30 years. And as we all know from our Finance classes, an investment that compounds at a rate of 9.62% per year will double in value every 7.3 years :)

There, now you all owe me a beer :)
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Pretty sure that’s almost verbatim what Kye Risdal the NPR reporter said this week on one of his podcasts.
Come to think of it…I think he’s a bike nerd too…:cautious:
 
BonsaiNut said:
Ok well if people want to visit... that's a freebie :) But first we have to finish building our house :)

And no, I am absolutely not kidding. If anyone on this site wants to come visit, send me a PM. We'll probably have guest quarters in the 2nd half of next year. And we live 1.8 miles from 30 miles of flowy single track :)

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Addition to your current home? Where have you been living the past.......
 
scan said:
Addition to your current home? Where have you been living the past.......
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This property had an old house on it that we lived in for the last two years (during pandemic). Once we got all the plans, permits, builder, etc lined up, we moved out into a rental about 10 miles away and demoed the old house. For two years it was quite an adventure in that old house. The roof leaked, electrical circuits were bad, plumbing had leaks, back deck was rotting, etc. Kind like camping inside of a house :)
 
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