Coronavirus. Not to be confused with Norcovirus.

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BonsaiNut said:
Luck just means "I don't understand the math... yet" :) No one knows. No one really knows how many people had the disease, or have the disease currently.

Here's a great example. According to John's Hopkins, Santa Clara County has had a total of 1,870 cases. Divided by 1.93 million county population, that yields a disease incidence rate of 0.097% (or about .1% for easy math). However, in a recent study by Stanford University, they did a statistical sample of county residents and found that "between 48,000 and 81,000 residents in Santa Clara County were infected as of April 1" (at a time when the confirmed case count was slightly less than 1000). The study found that "The number of coronavirus infections in Santa Clara County could be between 50 and 80 times higher than the officially confirmed count".

Given our ignorance in this area, it is possible to conclude that some parts of the country, where testing is indicating close to 1% case rates, may be approaching the 20 - 40% level where herd immunity starts to come into play. Even on this site, we have a number of members saying "I think I may have had it." Even my WIFE is now saying she thinks she may have had it back in January... and I recall a period where I was wiped out and felt like I couldn't get out of bed, but assumed it was due to stress and travel. Heck, given asymptomatic case rates, it is likely that several members of this site have had it, and never felt a thing.

If you follow this logic, the irony is that many people sheltering in place are already immune. Of course, that is what the government has been telling us all along - that they are unable to stem the natural tide of this disease without a vaccine, and the best they can hope for is to slow it down so that our medical facilities aren't overwhelmed when dealing with the small percentage of severe cases.
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I really hope this study is at least somewhat reflective of reality.

Here is a peer review that casts some doubt: https://medium.com/@balajis/peer-re...in-santa-clara-county-california-1f6382258c25

TL/DR: 1. False positive rate COULD account for most to all of positives. 2. Testing may select for those exposed or concerned they were exposed. 3. Given excess mortality worldwide, pandemic rate of spread would be far greater than that observed in prior pandemics (if the lower mortality rate were true).

I’m rooting for this critique to be wrong, but he does raise good points....


The best analogy I’ve heard for this whole thing is the old blind men and the elephant parable.
 
I just saw my neighbor, who is handicapped, ride a bike out of his garage and he has done a few laps around the block. It was a surprise because he has struggles just walking to the end of the driveway but what an awesome site to see.

Biggest smile I’ve ever seen on his face. There is some positive stuff coming out of this. I am thankful for a lot right now.
 
DangerDirtyD said:
Alright pendejos...I don’t wanna read 42 pages of the rona, so just fill me in.
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Apparently more than half the population is wearing tinfoil hats now. Don't go outside unless you're a gardener or you have to deliver :poop:. If you do go outside wear a mask or you will be shamed. Nonessential businesses are closed. Actually there's talk of slowly opening nonessential businesses but it's just talk. I have no idea what's going on. I'm working 60 hours a week and riding my bike on the weekends. Nothing new here except more overtime than usual this time of year. :)
 
UPSed said:
Apparently more than half the population is wearing tinfoil hats now. Don't go outside unless you're a gardener or you have to deliver :poop:. If you do go outside wear a mask or you will be shamed. Nonessential businesses are closed. Actually there's talk of slowly opening nonessential businesses but it's just talk. I have no idea what's going on. I'm working 60 hours a week and riding my bike on the weekends. Nothing new here except more overtime than usual this time of year. :)
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I drove by a JiffyLube last week with a big banner stating that they are an essential business.
 
The Johns Hopkins site has now added testing rate and hospitalization rate to their site. It is crazy. In Kentucky, for example, 35% of all confirmed cases are being hospitalized. Not sure what that means... are they only testing people who show up with severe symptoms? (therefore only the sickest people are confirmed with CoViD-19, and are much more likely to be hospitalized?)

Bad news for California. It has the lowest testing rate in the country. Who knows why? Perhaps fewer people are sick, leading to fewer people showing up in hospitals to be confirmed with the illness(?)
 
BonsaiNut said:
The Johns Hopkins site has now added testing rate and hospitalization rate to their site. It is crazy. In Kentucky, for example, 35% of all confirmed cases are being hospitalized. Not sure what that means... are they only testing people who show up with severe symptoms? (therefore only the sickest people are confirmed with CoViD-19, and are much more likely to be hospitalized?)

Bad news for California. It has the lowest testing rate in the country. Who knows why? Perhaps fewer people are sick, leading to fewer people showing up in hospitals to be confirmed with the illness(?)
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I’m expecting it to be due to the lack of symptomatic people presenting for test. Other places have more positives per test. Given how hard it is to get a test, you’d think almost everyone who got tested would be positive.

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I'm not exactly sure that I understood this correctly so please chime in if this is incorrect but I think I heard the State say that the number of test results for people with antibodies is 55 times higher than the actual number of positive cases at this time?! :eek:
 
SnakeCharmer said:
I'm not exactly sure that I understood this correctly so please chime in if this is incorrect but I think I heard the State say that the number of test results for people with antibodies is 55 times higher than the actual number of positive cases at this time?! :eek:
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L.A. County, not the state. It is all estimated based on very limited antibody testing of only 863 people, of which 4.1% tested positive. From that small sample they "estimate" that between 221,000 to 442,000 people could have already been infected. If true, it also means the death rate from the virus is much lower than previously thought.

Of course, the headline screams "LA County Outbreak Is Up To 55 Times Bigger Than Reported Cases!!!"
 
The part that just drives me the most nuts is there's no common sense. Like UPS said, you've got a giant section of people playing 'holier-than-thou' touting you shouldn't leave your house for a nanosecond longer that absolutely necessary. Then you've got the other half screaming giant conspiracy theory. Am I deathly afraid of getting this? No. Do I want to get it or my family to get it? Also no. While this 'lockdown' seems like a good idea on paper, I don't think it's feasible for so many reasons. The longer it goes, the crazier people are going to get. There needs to be some sort of balance between public safety, personal freedoms, people being able to work and provide for their families, etc, etc. Leave it to humanity to take everything to Nth degree and argue about it on the internet.
 
Just got the latest utility bill, and it's interesting. Period is from 2/14 - 4/15 (yeah, two months at a time for water, electric, sewer & trash): Average daily water usage is down 40% compared to same time last year (rain, love it); Average daily kWh up 11% over last year. Since both the wife and I have been working from home since March 13 it's to be expected.

But solar can't happen here. Electricity cost for those two months, without the add-on "customer charge" & such - just electricity, was only $104. $52/mo on an 1,800 sq ft house. :thumbsup::thumbsup:

It might go up to $100/mo in summer.
 
Runs with Scissors said:
Just got the latest utility bill, and it's interesting. Period is from 2/14 - 4/15 (yeah, two months at a time for water, electric, sewer & trash): Average daily water usage is down 40% compared to same time last year (rain, love it); Average daily kWh up 11% over last year. Since both the wife and I have been working from home since March 13 it's to be expected.

But solar can't happen here. Electricity cost for those two months, without the add-on "customer charge" & such - just electricity, was only $104. $52/mo on an 1,800 sq ft house. :thumbsup::thumbsup:

It might go up to $100/mo in summer.
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Reward yourself with a new bike!
 
Runs with Scissors said:
Just got the latest utility bill, and it's interesting. Period is from 2/14 - 4/15 (yeah, two months at a time for water, electric, sewer & trash): Average daily water usage is down 40% compared to same time last year (rain, love it); Average daily kWh up 11% over last year. Since both the wife and I have been working from home since March 13 it's to be expected.

But solar can't happen here. Electricity cost for those two months, without the add-on "customer charge" & such - just electricity, was only $104. $52/mo on an 1,800 sq ft house. :thumbsup::thumbsup:

It might go up to $100/mo in summer.
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Just paid my gas bill. With the climate credit is was a whopping $0.24 :thumbsup:

And my electric bill is estimated to be $43 this month. But hey, there's some hot days coming so that may go up. With me working from home and the wife off work for now.

Looking forward to start traveling again for work... this staying home ain't all that. I actually started to enjoy going to the airport and flying. Bose noise canceling headphones for the Win! Silence in flight :inlove:
 
Danimal said:
Just paid my gas bill. With the climate credit is was a whopping $0.24 :thumbsup:

And my electric bill is estimated to be $43 this month. But hey, there's some hot days coming so that may go up. With me working from home and the wife off work for now.

Looking forward to start traveling again for work... this staying home ain't all that. I actually started to enjoy going to the airport and flying. Bose noise canceling headphones for the Win! Silence in flight :inlove:
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You most definitely deserve a new bike!
 
Runs with Scissors said:
Just got the latest utility bill, and it's interesting. Period is from 2/14 - 4/15 (yeah, two months at a time for water, electric, sewer & trash): Average daily water usage is down 40% compared to same time last year (rain, love it); Average daily kWh up 11% over last year. Since both the wife and I have been working from home since March 13 it's to be expected.

But solar can't happen here. Electricity cost for those two months, without the add-on "customer charge" & such - just electricity, was only $104. $52/mo on an 1,800 sq ft house. :thumbsup::thumbsup:

It might go up to $100/mo in summer.
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Why can't solar happen?
 
Went to Costco in San Dimas this morning. Short queue outside, maybe 7 or 8 minutes wait to get in (half hour after opening). Lots of goods inside.... toilet paper... paper towels... diapers ... beer... baileys irish cream....

When I exited the building an hour later....the line was down to the end of the building.....
 
Derkderkall said:
My edison bill is $11 dollars this month.....
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Ours was only $110, add a zero to yours. That’s the lowest it’s been in the year we’ve been here and it was due to a $37 credit. :confused: Now that the heat has arrived it’ll creep up then during the warmest months $200+. I think the highest was $230 last year during the hottest month.

If we are still working from home over the summer then I expect a hearty bill. Not filling up with gas much offsets it though. We’ve also only had one meal that wasn’t home cooked since March 13th so saving there as well. Had McDonald’s delivered for the kids last Thursday and while I don’t usually eat it the double Big Mac was amazing.

Edit: Dang, this is without running the air which we just started doing today. Bought a bounce house to give the kids “recess” time while we are working so I am sure that blower is making a big dent.

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All you guys talking about your electric bills. Here in Arizona we started yesterday with the 2 ac units on my house and they will run thru September or October. Now we do have lower rates than California per KWH but still it’s lots of electricity with a wife working from home and a pool. Oh well it is what it is. I guess corona does not like the heat so I guess I’m in a good spot.
 
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